经过鲁肃和诸葛亮的劝说，孙权审时度势，反复掂量，决定联合刘备对抗曹操。但是，进行这样一场风险很大的战争，不能不探讨军事上的可能性。那么，是谁为孙权做了可行性分析？孙权最后又是怎样决策和部署的呢？敬请关注《易中天品三国》之——中流砥柱。
建安十三年，曹操基本统一北方后，进而想统一全国，便挥师南下，直逼荆州。结果是刘表病故，刘琮投降，刘备逃窜，败于当阳。志得意满的曹操决定顺江东下，消灭刘备，威逼东吴。面对强敌，东吴集团的谋臣将士们十分惊恐，以张昭为首的大部分人都认为应该“迎曹”，只有以鲁肃为首的少数人力主“抗曹”。此时，走投无路的刘备只有联合孙权才有一线生机，便派诸葛亮出使东吴展开外交活动联孙抗曹。经过鲁肃和诸葛亮的透彻分析，孙权清楚地意识到投降曹操决无出路，而对抗曹操就只有联合刘备。然而，来势汹汹曹操号称八十万众，水陆并进双管齐下，在此危难时刻，谁能为东吴集团挑起大梁，率领孙刘联军夺取胜利呢？厦门大学易中天教授将为您精彩讲述《易中天品三国》之“中流砥柱”。
After persuasion by Lu Su and Zhuge Liang, Sun Quan considered the situation and repeatedly decided to unite Liu Bei against Cao Cao. However, in conducting such a high-risk war, it is necessary to explore military possibilities. So, who did the feasibility analysis for Sun Quan? How did Sun Quan ultimately make decisions and deploy? Please pay attention to “Yi Zhong Tian Pin Three Kingdoms” – the mainstay.
In the 13th year of Jian’an, after Cao Cao basically unified the north, and then wanted to unify the whole country, he sent his troops southward to force Jingzhou. As a result, Liu Biao died of illness, Liu Cong surrendered, and Liu Bei fled, losing to Dangyang. The complacent Cao Cao decided to march east along the Yangtze River, wipe out Liu Bei, and intimidate the Eastern Wu. Faced with a powerful enemy, the advisers and soldiers of the Soochow Group were very frightened. Most people, led by Zhang Zhao, believed that they should “welcome Cao”, while only a small number of manpower leaders, led by Lu Su, “resist Cao.”. At this time, Liu Bei, who had no choice but to unite with Sun Quan, had a chance of survival. He sent Zhuge Liang to the Eastern Wu to launch diplomatic activities to unite Sun against Cao. After thorough analysis by Lu Su and Zhuge Liang, Sun Quan clearly realized that there was no way out of surrendering to Cao Cao, and against Cao Cao, only by uniting Liu Bei was there. However, Cao Cao is known as “800000 people”, and both land and water are advancing together. At this critical moment, who can stir up the main beam for the Soochow Group and lead the Sun Liu Allied Army to victory? Professor Yi Zhongtian of Xiamen University will give you a wonderful account of the “mainstay” of “Yi Zhongtian’s Three Kingdoms”.
易中天：
上一集我们讲到鲁肃和诸葛亮都给孙权算了账，鲁肃算清了政治账，那就是不能投降曹操；诸葛亮算清了联盟账，就是联盟刘备对抗曹操完全有可能。但是我讲到诸葛亮算账的时候，我说了诸葛亮有几个账没算，其中一个就有战败了怎么办？那么这个账鲁肃也没算，鲁肃为什么也没算这个账呢？因为用不着，鲁肃算清了一个账就是你孙权投降曹操没有归宿，战败了一样，也就是你投降和战败的结果是一样的，那么相比较而言还不如打它一仗，说不定打赢了呢；就算打败了，因为失败而没有归宿比投降没有归宿要光荣得多，所以用不着算战败了怎么办这笔账。那么鲁肃替孙权算清了政治账，但鲁肃没有算军事账；诸葛亮算了军事账，但这是另一方的意见，不是孙权集团内部的意见，孙权还必须听取本集团内部对于这个问题的意见。
Yi Zhongtian:
In the previous episode, we talked about Lu Su and Zhuge Liang settling accounts for Sun Quan, and Lu Su settling political accounts, that is, they cannot surrender to Cao Cao; Zhuge Liang has settled the alliance’s accounts, which means that it is entirely possible for Liu Bei to confront Cao Cao. But when I talked about Zhuge Liang’s accounting, I said that there were several accounts that Zhuge Liang had not accounted for, and one of them had been defeated. What should I do? So Lu Su didn’t even calculate this account. Why didn’t Lu Su calculate this account? “Because there was no need, Lu Su made a clear account that your surrender to Cao Cao by Sun Quan had no final destination, and if you were defeated, that is, your surrender and defeat would have the same outcome, so it would be better to fight it than to win it.”; Even if you are defeated, it is much more glorious to lose without a destination than surrender without a destination, so there is no need to calculate what to do if you are defeated. So Lu Su settled the political accounts for Sun Quan, but Lu Su did not settle the military accounts; Zhuge Liang calculated the military accounts, but this is the opinion of the other party, not the opinion of the Sun Quan Group. Sun Quan must also listen to the opinions of the Group on this issue.
而这一点鲁肃想到了，因此鲁肃建议孙权立即召回周瑜。这个时候周瑜因为有任务，正在去鄱阳的路上，孙权接受了鲁肃的这个建议，立即把周瑜从去鄱阳的路上召了回来，听取周瑜的意见。那么这个事情在《三国演义》里面另有说法，《三国演义》和《三国志》的说法有五点不同：第一点，《三国演义》说建议召回周瑜的不是鲁肃，是吴国太。为什么鲁肃不能提出这个建议来呢？因为按照《三国演义》的说法，是鲁肃先说服了孙权，但是孙权还很犹豫，鲁肃建议孙权听取诸葛亮的意见，孙权和诸葛亮谈话，这个顺序和《资治通鉴》不同，但是更合理。那么就有了诸葛亮的舌战群儒，舌战群儒以后诸葛亮又和孙权谈话，孙权听了以后做出了决定要联合刘备对抗曹操。这个时候张昭这些人又跑去找孙权说，哎呀，这下子你可中了孔明先生的计了，这刘备和诸葛亮是想把咱们拉下水啊，孙权又犹豫起来了。那么这个时候鲁肃再来提出召回周瑜的这个建议就有问题了，因为鲁肃现在已经有里通外国的嫌疑，没有公信力；另外按照罗贯中的定位，鲁肃是一个忠厚老实到无用程度的这么一个人，他想不出这个办法来。这就要有一个人来说，这个人就是吴国太，这是第一点不同。
Lu Su thought of this, so he suggested that Sun Quan immediately recall Zhou Yu. At this time, Zhou Yu was on his way to Poyang due to a task. Sun Quan accepted Lu Su’s suggestion and immediately summoned Zhou Yu back from his way to Poyang to listen to Zhou Yu’s opinions. Then there is another statement about this matter in “The Romance of the Three Kingdoms”. There are five differences between the statements in “The Romance of the Three Kingdoms” and “The Chronicles of the Three Kingdoms”: First, “The Romance of the Three Kingdoms” says that it is not Lu Su who proposed to recall Zhou Yu, but Wu Guotai. Why couldn’t Lu Su come up with this suggestion? According to “The Romance of the Three Kingdoms”, it was Lu Su who first persuaded Sun Quan, but Sun Quan was still hesitant. Lu Su suggested that Sun Quan listen to Zhuge Liang’s opinions, and Sun Quan and Zhuge Liang talked. This order is different from “Zi Zhi Tong Jian”, but it is more reasonable. Then there was a battle of words between Zhuge Liang and his followers. After that, Zhuge Liang talked to Sun Quan again. After hearing this, Sun Quan made a decision to unite Liu Bei against Cao Cao. At this moment, Zhang Zhao and other people ran to Sun Quan and said, “Oh, now you’ve caught Mr. Kong Ming’s plan. Liu Bei and Zhuge Liang are trying to pull us into the water, but Sun Quan hesitated again.”. “At this time, it would be problematic for Lu Su to come up with the proposal to recall Zhou Yu, because Lu Su is now suspected of having been involved in collusion with foreign countries and lacks credibility;”; In addition, according to Luo Guanzhong’s positioning, Lu Su was such a loyal and honest person that he couldn’t figure out such a way. This requires a person, Wu Guotai, who is the first difference.
