但是有一个问题是不能回避的，就是刘备刚刚打败了仗，你总不能说我们大获全胜啊如何如何，那怎么说呢？哎，一笔带过，我们不是刚前面说与曹操并争天下嘛，那就说曹操怎么样了，曹操怎么样了？说曹操不得了，如何如何。那么如何如何了以后呢，我们刘豫州英雄无所用武，那么刘豫州就没有用武之地了，“请将军量力处之”。他话锋一转，刚刚说完我们刘豫州英雄无所用武以后，他话锋一转就过去了，请将军量力处之，请你考虑考虑！考虑什么？考虑你怎么办。明明是他来求援，明明自己有事，新败之后，英雄无所用武，不说我怎么办，他说你怎么办，一脚就把球踢过去了。为什么要这样讲呢？因为这个时候他必须站在对方的立场上设身处地替对方想一想，也就是告诉你孙权说，现在麻烦不在我们这里，麻烦在你那儿，为什么你麻烦呢？因为我们刘豫州虽然是英雄无所用武，我没有了用武之地，但是我也就没了顾忌，我已经被置于死地而后生了，他实际上是把这个信息传过去了，我反正没有用武之地嘛，我反正是死路一条嘛，我现在光脚的不怕穿鞋的了。而你孙将军就麻烦了，你有鞋呀，对不对，你得想一想看，你算一算看，如果你的力量不足以对抗曹操，你应该及早投降，如果你的力量足以对抗曹操，你应该立即翻脸，你得把账算清楚。像你现在这样“外托服从之名，而内怀犹豫之计”，那你两头都不讨好，“祸至无日矣”，你倒霉的日子说来就来。这个话也是非常对的，就是我们做决策最怕的是犹豫，当断不断，反受其乱，我们做人也好，做事也好，记住一条就是一定要彻底，千万不要又想这边也沾着，那边也沾着，那么最终两边都沾不着，所以这个话说得是非常对的。
However, there is a problem that cannot be avoided, that is, Liu Bei has just defeated the war, and you can’t always say that we won a complete victory. How about that? How about that? Hey, once I mentioned it, didn’t we just say that we were competing with Cao Cao for the world? So what about Cao Cao? What about Cao Cao? It’s amazing to talk about Cao Cao, how about it. So what’s the matter? In the future, if our heroes in Liuyu Prefecture have no use for martial arts, then there will be no use for martial arts in Liuyu Prefecture. “General, please handle it according to your strength.”. “He changed the tone of his speech. Just after he finished saying that our hero Liu Yuzhou had no use for martial arts, he quickly passed away. Please deal with it according to your abilities, General. Please consider it!”! What to consider? Consider what you should do. Obviously, he came to ask for help. Obviously, he had something to do with himself. After the new defeat, the hero had no use for martial arts. Without telling me what to do, he said what to do with you and kicked the ball with one kick. Why do you say this? Because at this time, he must put himself in the other party’s shoes and think for the other party, that is, tell Sun Quan that the trouble is not with us now, but with you. Why are you in trouble? “Although we in Liuyuzhou are heroes who have no use for martial arts, I have no place to use it, but I have no scruples. I have been put to death and have been reborn. He actually passed this message on. I have no place to use martial arts anyway, I am a dead end anyway, and I am now not afraid to wear shoes barefoot.”. General Sun is in trouble. You have shoes, right? You have to think about it and calculate. If your strength is not enough to fight against Cao Cao, you should surrender as soon as possible. If your strength is enough to fight against Cao Cao, you should immediately turn your face and account for it. “As you are now, if you are entrusted with the name of obedience outside and harboring a plan of hesitation inside, then you will not please either side.” There will be no day for disaster, “and your unlucky day will come soon.”. “This statement is also very true. When making decisions, we are most afraid of hesitation, indecision, and resistance to chaos. Whether we are human beings or do things, remember that one thing must be thorough. Don’t think about getting caught on either side and getting caught on the other, so ultimately both sides won’t get caught, so this statement is very true.”.
但是孙权也没有那么好糊弄，孙权就反唇相讥了，那你们刘豫州怎么就不投降呢？诸葛亮的回答大义凛然，刘豫州当然不能投降，想当年田横不过是一个匹夫，尚且守义不辱，我们刘豫州是什么人，“王室之胄，英才盖世，众士慕仰，若水这归海”，天底下的人士向往我们刘豫州就像河流向往大海一样，这样的人岂肯投降，我们肯定是决战到底，如果失败了那是天意，投降万万不能。那么这段话恐怕得看做外交辞令了，刘备是英雄不假，但并非从来就不投降，有部电影叫做《修女也疯狂》，我们可以套一句叫做“英雄也投降”，在那个时代实在打不过了，临时投它一下，找个机会以后他再反，也不是什么丢人的事情，也不存在道德障碍。你看《三国演义》里面讲到青梅煮酒论英雄的时候，《三国演义》有首诗，叫做“勉从虎穴暂趋身，说破英雄惊煞人。巧借闻雷来掩饰，随机应变信如神。”就刘备的性格来说，随机应变是他的性格，守义不辱那不是，当然我们不要因此小看刘备，所以我还是肯定刘备是英雄，这个男子汉能屈能伸嘛，大丈夫也能进能退嘛，这也没有什么，但是也别以为他真的就是守义不辱。但是诸葛亮这个话是对的，也不能说诸葛亮在这里说假话，为什么呢？因为在这样一个时候，形势是非常危机，诸葛亮的使命就是一定要说服孙权联合起来对付曹操，要这样一个情况下就应该这样说。
But Sun Quan was not so easy to fool, and Sun Quan retorted. Why didn’t you Liu Yuzhou surrender? Zhuge Liang’s answer is solemn and resolute. Of course, Liu Yuzhou cannot surrender. In those days, Tian Heng was just a man, and he still kept his righteousness without humiliation. What kind of people are we in Liu Yuzhou? “The nobles of the royal family, the heroes of the world, the people admire us, and if the water returns to the sea,” people in the world yearn for us in Liu Yuzhou, just like rivers yearn for the sea. How can such people surrender? We must be determined to fight to the end, and if we fail, it is fate, Surrender is absolutely impossible. “So this passage may have to be seen as diplomatic rhetoric. Liu Bei is a hero, but he never fails to surrender. There is a movie called” Nuns Are Crazy, “and we can use the phrase” Heroes Surrender, too. “In that era, it was really unbearable to throw it in for a while and find a chance to counter it again. It is not a disgrace or a moral barrier.”. When it was mentioned in “The Romance of the Three Kingdoms” that green plum was used to cook wine and discuss heroes, there was a poem in “The Romance of the Three Kingdoms” called “Relying on a temporary approach from a tiger’s lair, telling the truth about heroes and scaring people. By skillfully using the sound of thunder to cover it up, being flexible and trusting is like a god.” As for Liu Bei’s character, being flexible is his character, and being upright and not humiliating is not that. Of course, we should not underestimate Liu Bei for this reason. Therefore, I am still sure that Liu Bei is a hero, and this man can bend and stretch, “A big man can advance and retreat, which is nothing, but don’t think he’s really just keeping his righteousness and not insulting.”. But Zhuge Liang’s statement is correct, and it cannot be said that Zhuge Liang is lying here. Why? “Because at such a time, the situation is very critical, and Zhuge Liang’s mission is to persuade Sun Quan to unite against Cao Cao. In such a situation, this should be said.”.
果然孙权拍案而起，刘豫州只有一郡之地，两万人马，尚且守义不辱，我孙某人六郡之地，十万人马，岂能受制于人？孙权说了下面话：“吾计决矣，非刘豫州莫可当曹操者。”我定了。那下面还有一段对话，就是孙权问诸葛亮，他说但是刘豫州新败之后还有能力来对抗曹操吗，有这么一笔军事帐，这个问题我们放在以后再讲。那么按照这样的一个程序，应该说是诸葛亮到了柴桑以后立即见到了孙权，而且立即说服了孙权，后面才是孙权和鲁肃谈，孙权和周瑜谈，然后才是战略部署等等等等，这是《资治通鉴》的时间表。按照这样一个时间表，孙刘联盟的首功，应该归于诸葛亮。
＊诸葛亮大义凛然的一番话说得孙权热血沸腾，于是拍案而起，决定联刘抗曹。但是我们不要忘记，这是曹操与刘备打仗，诸葛亮奉命前来求援，原本并不关孙权的事情，孙权为什么会如此激动呢？更何况，孙权也有自己的判断，难道仅凭诸葛亮的几句话就能置自己的地位于不顾，意气用事吗？事情恐怕没有那么简单。
Sure enough, Sun Quan rose to his feet, and Liu Yuzhou had only one county with 20000 people, yet he still kept his righteousness and did not humiliate him. How could someone in my grandson’s six counties with 100000 people be controlled by others? Sun Quan said the following: “My plan has been decided. Only Liuyu Prefecture can one become a Cao.” I made up my mind. Then there is another dialogue, which is Sun Quan asking Zhuge Liang, “But after Liu Yuzhou’s new defeat, does he still have the ability to confront Cao Cao? With such a military account, we will discuss this issue later.”. According to this procedure, it should be said that Zhuge Liang met Sun Quan immediately after arriving at Chaisang, and immediately convinced Sun Quan. Later, Sun Quan and Lu Su discussed, Sun Quan and Zhou Yu discussed, and then the strategic deployment and so on. This is the timetable for the “Comprehensive Review of Governance”. According to such a timetable, the first contribution of Sun Liu’s alliance should be attributed to Zhuge Liang.
“Zhuge Liang’s righteous words made Sun Quan’s blood boil, so he stood up and decided to unite Liu against Cao.”. But let’s not forget that this is a battle between Cao Cao and Liu Bei, and Zhuge Liang was ordered to come to seek help. It was not originally a matter of Sun Quan’s concern. Why was Sun Quan so excited? What’s more, Sun Quan also has his own judgment. Could it be possible to disregard his own position and be motivated by Zhuge Liang’s words alone? I’m afraid it’s not that simple.
但是我们知道这里面有一个问题，什么问题呢？就是鲁肃和诸葛亮一起从夏口来到柴桑去见孙权，谁先见？这个《三国志》是没有交待的，那谁先见谁就是第一功嘛，《资治通鉴》说是诸葛亮先见，而且见到以后孙权就说了“吾计决矣”，而且《资治通鉴》接下来说权大悦，然后和群臣商议，这个时候张昭等人反对，然后鲁肃才怎么怎么说，然后周瑜才怎么怎么说。但是这个过程，这个交待是司马光交待的，不是陈寿交待的，因此我们就要问一个问题，孙权究竟有没有可能在还没见到鲁肃，也没有和自己的部下商量过，仅凭诸葛亮一席话就拍板表态呢？有没有这个可能？我的结论是不可能。不可能有四个理由：
But we know there is a problem here. What problem? It was Lu Su and Zhuge Liang who came from Xiakou to Chaisang to meet Sun Quan together. Who saw him first? This “Three Kingdoms Annals” has not been explained, so whoever saw it first is the first merit. “Zi Zhi Tong Jian” said that it was Zhuge Liang’s foresight, and after seeing it, Sun Quan said, “My plan is decided.” Moreover, “Zi Zhi Tong Jian” next said Quan Da Yue, and then discussed with the officials. At this time, Zhang Zhao and others objected, and then Lu Su said what to say, and then Zhou Yu said what to say. However, in this process, this confession was made by Sima Guang, not Chen Shou. Therefore, we have to ask a question: Is it possible that Sun Quan has not yet met Lu Su, nor discussed with his subordinates, and just based on Zhuge Liang’s words, can he make a decision? Is it possible? My conclusion is that it is impossible. There are four reasons why it is not possible:
第一点，这场战争是谁的？根据《三国志·武帝纪》的记载，这场战争原本是曹刘之争，就是曹操他发动这场战争的目的是夺荆州、伐刘表、灭刘备，所以《三国志》的《武帝纪》的记载都是“公至江陵征刘备”“公至赤壁与备战”，按照《三国志·武帝纪》的这个说法，曹操这个战争的目的先是为了夺荆州，荆州拿下来以后再继续顺江东下，就是打刘备的，不关孙权的事，孙权是被拖下水的。这个有很多历史学家都在讲这个话，而且还有历史学家提出来，包括吕思勉先生都提出来，说想不通孙权为什么去趟这个混水，为什么被拖下水。那么不关心孙权的事情，孙权怎么会马上就表态呢？有人说这就是诸葛亮这句话激的，我们刘豫州如何守义不辱等等，这个就是太小儿科了，把战争当做儿戏了，把历史当做小说了，没错，孙权和孙悟空都姓孙，但是孙权不是孙悟空，不会一激他就跳起来，孙权这个时候虽然只有二十七岁但是政治上已经相当成熟了，你想孙权十八九岁的时候，鲁肃要劝他称帝，他怎么说的？哎呀，非所及也，他那个时候就会打哈哈，打官腔了，他怎么可能中你的激将法的计？这是第一点。
First, whose war is this? According to the records in the Records of the Three Kingdoms, the war was originally a battle between Cao and Liu. It was Cao Cao who launched the war to seize Jingzhou, attack Liu Biao, and destroy Liu Bei. Therefore, the records in the Records of the Three Kingdoms, the Records of the Wu Emperor, are all “Gongzhi Jiangling to invade Liu Bei,” “Gongzhi Chibi and prepare for the war.” According to the statement in the Records of the Three Kingdoms, the purpose of Cao Cao’s war was first to seize Jingzhou, “After Jingzhou took it down, he continued to descend the river eastward. That was to hit Liu Bei. It was not Sun Quan’s business, and Sun Quan was dragged into the water.”. Many historians are saying this, and there are also historians, including Mr. Lv Simian, who have proposed that they cannot figure out why Sun Quan went to this troubled water and was dragged into the water. So how could Sun Quan immediately take a stand if he didn’t care about Sun Quan’s affairs? Some people say that this is the provocation of Zhuge Liang’s sentence, “How do we defend justice and not humiliate Liu Yuzhou?” And so on. This is too childish, treating war as a child’s play, and history as a novel. Yes, Sun Quan and Sun Wukong are both surnamed Sun, but Sun Quan is not Sun Wukong, and he won’t jump up at the slightest provocation. Although Sun Quan was only 27 years old at this time, he was quite mature politically. Do you think when Sun Quan was eighteen or nine years old, Lu Su wanted to persuade him to become emperor. What did he say? Oh, it’s beyond our reach. He would have laughed and played an official role at that time. How could he have been caught in your provocative tactics? This is the first point.
第二点，在投降曹操还是对抗曹操这个问题上，江东集团内部是有很有激烈的斗争的。这个有大量的材料可以证明，也就是说在江东集团存在着一个势力很大的，我们叫它投降派也好，叫它降曹派也好，叫它鸽派也好，叫它主和派也好，反正是确实存在这么一个力量，这个力量不可能是诸葛亮来了以后才冒出来的，他们早就存在了，而且江东集团也不可能是诸葛亮来了以后才关注到荆州的势态，他应该是早就关注了，所以才有孙权派鲁肃到当阳去见刘备这样一件事情，就说明他们早就在关注这个形势的发展了。于是不同的意见应该也是早就形成了，那么在这样意见分歧的情况下，以孙权这样一个会做领导的人，他怎么可能不和家里人先商量好了，统一了思想，统一了认识，仅凭一个陌生人，原来敌对集团的，明明自己打败仗来求援的这么一个人这么慷慨陈辞一番，他就表态了，这个逻辑上讲不通的。
Secondly, there is a fierce struggle within the Jiangdong Group on the issue of surrendering to or confronting Cao Cao. There is a large amount of evidence to prove that there is a powerful faction in the Jiangdong Group, whether we call it the capitulatory faction, the capitulatory faction, the dove faction, or the moderator faction. Anyway, there really exists such a force, which cannot have emerged since the arrival of Zhuge Liang. They already exist, Moreover, it is impossible for Jiangdong Group to pay attention to the situation in Jingzhou only after Zhuge Liang arrived. He should have paid attention to it long ago. Therefore, the fact that Sun Quan sent Lu Su to Dangyang to meet Liu Bei indicates that they have long been paying attention to the development of this situation. Therefore, different opinions should have been formed for a long time. Under such divergent circumstances, how could a leader like Sun Quan not discuss with his family first, unify his thoughts, and unify his understanding? With such a generous statement from a stranger, a former enemy of the group, who clearly defeated the war and asked for help, he expressed his position, which logically makes no sense.
第三点，孙权最后为什么要决定联合刘备抗曹操，要来帮刘备这一把呢？难道是路见不平一声吼，该出手时就出手？那是李逵、那是武松、那是鲁智深，那不是孙权，孙权不是江湖好汉。再说了，孙权和刘备也不是哥们儿，他干吗来打这个抱不平，他是政治利益所使然，他是算账的结果，他把账算清楚了的。而这个时候孙权为什么犹豫不决？我们前面讲过了，当时曹操往南一出兵，孙权马上就派鲁肃去找刘备，当时就是决定要联合刘备来对抗曹操的，那么这个时候为什么犹豫了呢？因为他有一些账算不清楚，哪些账算不清楚呢？我们来帮他算它一算，第一，论亲疏，孙权跟曹操亲，跟刘备疏。孙权和曹操是姻亲，是亲家，这个曹操的侄女嫁给了孙权的弟弟孙匡，曹操的儿子曹彰娶了孙权的侄女，这个辈分有点乱，但是他们确实是儿女亲家；跟刘备呢，八杆子打不着，非亲非故。第二，论强弱，不要论了，明摆着的，谁强谁弱。论情感，孙权对曹操是又怕又恨又不敢得罪；刘备呢，不关他死活，没情感。但是曹操把手伸到荆州来，孙权是不高兴的，因为荆州这个地方是他孙权想要的，而且如果一旦刘备被曹操灭了，孙权会感到威胁，这个也是肯定的。但是如果贸然地帮助刘备那就等于和曹操翻脸，曹操也是得罪不起的，也是要给自己惹来麻烦的，那么现在账是个什么样的账呢？帮助刘备引火烧身，不帮刘备助纣为虐，反过来也一样，不帮刘备唇亡齿寒，帮助刘备养虎遗患，因为刘备也不是什么省油的灯，你这回帮了他，他难道将来就不打你的主意，他羽翼丰满了以后，你以为他是那么好玩的吗？所以孙权犹豫，他算过来算过去他这个账算不清楚，那么最好的办法就是守中立了。也不行，你想当年曹操跟袁绍打仗的时候，刘表就守中立，最后怎么样呢？曹操把袁家灭了以后灭刘表。所以帮刘备不是，不帮刘备不是，守中立也不是，这才犹豫，这才拿捏不准，如果孙权拿捏准了，算好这个账，诸葛亮不来说他也会派鲁肃去找刘备。那么他又为什么在诸葛亮说的时候拍了这一板呢？那只有一个推论，就是在此之前已经有人帮孙权把账算清楚了，他有了底才对诸葛亮拍了板：“吾计决矣，非刘豫州莫可当曹操者。”
Thirdly, why did Sun Quan finally decide to unite Liu Bei against Cao Cao and help Liu Bei? Is it a roar from the injustice of the road, and when it’s time to take action? That’s Li Kui, that’s Wu Song, that’s Lu Zhishen, that’s not Sun Quan, and Sun Quan is not a Jianghu hero. Besides, Sun Quan and Liu Bei are not buddies. Why did he come to fight against this injustice? He was motivated by political interests, he was the result of accounting, and he calculated the accounts clearly. Why did Sun Quan hesitate at this time? As we mentioned earlier, as soon as Cao Cao sent troops south, Sun Quan immediately sent Lu Su to find Liu Bei. At that time, he decided to unite Liu Bei against Cao Cao. Why did he hesitate at this time? “Because some of his accounts are unclear, what accounts are unclear?”? Let’s help him figure it out. First, on intimacy, Sun Quan is close to Cao Cao and Liu Bei. Sun Quan and Cao Cao are related by marriage and are in law. This niece of Cao Cao married Sun Kuang, Sun Quan’s younger brother, and Cao Zhang, Cao Cao’s son, married Sun Quan’s niece. This generation is a bit chaotic, but they are indeed in law; As for Liu Bei, I can’t play with eight poles. I’m not a relative. Second, when it comes to strength, let’s not talk about it. It’s clear who is strong and who is weak. In terms of emotion, Sun Quan was both afraid and hated Cao Cao and dared not offend him; Liu Bei, regardless of his life or death, has no emotions. But when Cao Cao reached for Jingzhou, Sun Quan was not happy because Jingzhou was the place he wanted, and if Liu Bei was destroyed by Cao Cao, Sun Quan would feel threatened, which was also certain. “But if you help Liu Bei recklessly, it would be tantamount to falling out with Cao Cao, who cannot afford to offend and also cause trouble for himself. So what kind of account is it now?”? Helping Liu Bei ignite the flames, not helping Liu Bei become a tyrant, and vice versa, not helping Liu Bei die with cold lips and teeth, but helping Liu Bei raise the scourge of the tiger. Because Liu Bei is not a fuel efficient lamp, did you help him this time, and he won’t be your idea in the future? After his plump wings, do you think he is so funny? Therefore, Sun Quan hesitated, and if he could not calculate his account clearly, the best way was to remain neutral. “Not really. Do you think when Cao Cao fought with Yuan Shao, Liu Biao was neutral? What happened in the end?”? After Cao Cao destroyed the Yuan family, he destroyed Liu Biao. Therefore, helping Liu Bei is not enough, not helping Liu Bei is not enough, and maintaining neutrality is not enough. This is why we hesitate, and this is why we are not sure. If Sun Quan is right, we can calculate this account. Without Zhuge Liang saying anything, he will also send Lu Su to find Liu Bei. So why did he take this picture when Zhuge Liang said it? “There is only one corollary. Before that, someone had helped Sun Quan figure out the accounts, and when he had the bottom line, he took a stab at Zhuge Liang, saying, ‘My plan has been decided. Only Liu Yuzhou can be a Cao.'”
那有人就会再问一个问题了，你说的把账算清的这个人难道就不能够是诸葛亮？不能够。为什么不能够呢？这不是水平问题，不是能力问题，诸葛亮的能力、水平确实很高，但是此刻不行。是什么问题呢？是立场问题，身份问题。诸葛亮现在是什么身份？是刘备集团的使节。什么立场？刘备的立场，不是孙权的立场，当然为了维护刘备的立场，他也能够设身处地地站在孙权的立场上替孙权谋划一下，但不可能十分到位，孙权也不可能完全相信。因为在孙权要算的这个账里面还有一笔账，这就是我说不可能的第四个原因，什么呢？就是孙权的决策不但要考虑江东集团的集团利益，还要考虑他孙权的个人利益。而替孙权个人进行谋划，绝不可能是诸葛亮，因为他是另一个集团派来的使节。如果这个时候诸葛亮没出山，他不是刘备的人，他还隐居在隆中，这个时候他飘然来到江东说一番话，那个可能起作用，他以局外人的身份来讲是能起作用的，但他已经是局中人了，这个身份改不了。而设身处地贴心贴肺地替孙权谋划的，只可能是孙权自己的人，而且这个人还必须非常清楚孙权的心思，能够和孙权达到心照不宣的默契，那么这个人他是谁呢？请看下集——力挽狂澜。
Then someone will ask another question. Can’t the person you’re talking about clearing up the accounts be Zhuge Liang? No. Why not? “This is not a question of level, it is not a question of ability. Zhuge Liang’s ability and level are indeed very high, but not at the moment.”. What is the problem? It’s a question of position and identity. What is Zhuge Liang’s current identity? He is an envoy of the Liu Bei Group. What position? Liu Bei’s position is not Sun Quan’s position. Of course, in order to maintain Liu Bei’s position, he can also put himself in Sun Quan’s position and plan for Sun Quan, but it cannot be fully implemented and Sun Quan cannot fully believe it. Because there is still an account in the account that Sun Quan wants to calculate, which is the fourth reason why I say it is impossible. What? Sun Quan’s decision should not only consider the group interests of Jiangdong Group, but also consider his Sun Quan’s personal interests. “It is absolutely impossible for Zhuge Liang to plan for Sun Quan personally, as he is an envoy sent by another group.”. If Zhuge Liang had not emerged from the mountains at this time, he was not Liu Bei’s person, and he was still living in seclusion in Longzhong. At this time, he floated to Jiangdong to say something, which might have worked. As an outsider, he could have worked, but he was already a member of the bureau, and his identity could not be changed. “The only person who empathizes with Sun Quan and plans for Sun Quan can be Sun Quan’s own person, and this person must also be very clear about Sun Quan’s thoughts and be able to reach a tacit understanding with Sun Quan, so who is this person?”? Please watch the next episode – Turning the tide.
