这件事情裴松之认为不是事实，我也认为靠不住。因为我们在上一集已经讲过了，刘表对刘备的态度是什么呢？“礼遇之，疑其心，阴御之”，就是刘表对刘备的态度是客客气气地束之高阁，时时刻刻小心提防，他怎么会把荆州让给刘备呢？何况刘表对自己的接班人已有安排，那就是刘琮啊，他又怎么会把荆州给刘备呢？刘表病重的时候，刘琦从夏口到襄阳来探望他的父亲，被蔡瑁这些人、蒯越这些人挡驾，挡在门外，不让见，刘琦都见不到的人，刘备怎么见得到呢？而且蔡瑁这些人心里很清楚这个刘备，还有刘备背后的诸葛亮对待曹操是个什么态度，而这伙人是准备要投降曹操的，他们怎么会安排刘备去见刘表呢？而且根据当时的史实的情况、史书记载的情况看，病重之时的刘表其实已经被控制在蔡瑁家族这一伙人手里了，他不是想见谁都可以见谁的，就算刘表有这个意思，他也见不着啊，所以恐怕不是事实。
Pei Songzhi believes that this matter is not true, and I also believe it is unreliable. Because we already talked about it in the previous episode, what is Liu Biao’s attitude towards Liu Bei? “Courtesy, suspicion of one’s heart, and overcapacity” is Liu Biao’s attitude towards Liu Bei, which is politely shelved and constantly guarded. How could he yield Jingzhou to Liu Bei? Besides, Liu Biao has already arranged for his successor, Liu Cong. How could he give Jingzhou to Liu Bei? When Liu Biao was seriously ill, Liu Qi came to Xiangyang from Xiakou to visit his father. However, people like Cai Mao and Kuai Yue blocked him from seeing anyone outside the door. Liu Qi couldn’t even see anyone. How could Liu Bei see anyone? Moreover, Cai Mao and other people knew very well in their hearts what attitude Liu Bei and the Zhuge Liang behind Liu Bei had towards Cao Cao, and these people were prepared to surrender to Cao Cao. How could they arrange for Liu Bei to meet Liu Biao? According to the historical facts and records at that time, Liu Biao was actually controlled by the Cai Mao family at the time of his serious illness. He didn’t want to see anyone. Even if Liu Biao meant it, he couldn’t see it, so I’m afraid it’s not true.
那我们就要来研究一下这个到底是怎么回事，我认为有两种可能：第一种是刘备说谎，没有发生什么托孤或者托国的事情，刘备这么跟人说。这也没什么，这也不意味着刘备就有什么道德品质问题。因为当时的情况是荆州大难临头，人心浮动，在荆州地区有相当多的士族是不愿意投降曹操的，而他们又很清楚刘表也好，刘琦也好，刘琮也好，都抵挡不了曹操，所以他们便寄希望于刘备，有这么一部分人心；而刘备自己也不愿意失去荆州，至少不愿意失去荆州的人心，因为荆州对于刘备来说，进是他三分天下的根据地，退是他苟全性命的栖息地，他不能丢掉荆州。也就是说刘备需要荆州，荆州也需要刘备，那么在这样一个人心惶惶的时候，刘备出来说一句刘表曾托国于我，或者刘表曾托孤于我，可以起到安定人心的作用，可以理解为一种政治谋略，不必做道德的谴责，这是第一种情况。
“Then we need to study what’s going on here. I think there are two possibilities: the first is that Liu Bei lies, and nothing has happened to support orphans or countries,” Liu Bei told people. This is nothing, and it doesn’t mean that Liu Bei has any moral problems. Because the situation at that time was that Jingzhou was facing a catastrophe and the people’s hearts were floating, there were quite a few noble families in Jingzhou area who were unwilling to surrender to Cao Cao, and they were very clear that Liu Biao, Liu Qi, and Liu Cong could not resist Cao Cao, so they placed their hopes on Liu Bei, who had such a part of the people’s hearts; And Liu Bei himself is not willing to lose Jingzhou, at least not willing to lose the people of Jingzhou, because for Liu Bei, entering Jingzhou is the base of his three parts of the world, and retreating is the habitat of his life. He cannot lose Jingzhou. That is to say, Liu Bei needs Jingzhou, and Jingzhou also needs Liu Bei. When such a person is in a state of panic, Liu Bei can come out and say that Liu Biao once entrusted the country to me, or Liu Biao once entrusted me with isolation, which can play a role in stabilizing the people’s hearts and minds. It can be understood as a political strategy without moral condemnation. This is the first situation.
第二种情况就是刘表确实说了这个话，而我们前面说过了，刘表是不可能真心实意地把荆州让给刘备的，那么刘表为什么又要托国或者托孤于刘备呢？试探。刘表很清楚刘备是在打荆州的主意的，但是现在我刘表在世，刘备不敢轻举妄动，我一旦撒手人寰，我那两个宝贝儿子能守得住这家业吗？不能不把刘备找来试探一下呀，于是假模假势地说：哎呀，你看我这儿子不中用，我死了以后这荆州你就拿过去吧！我怀疑刘表说这句话的时候两边已经埋伏好了蔡瑁他们派来的刀斧手，只要你刘备欣然表态说“好！你死了以后荆州就是我的了”，肯定就剁成肉酱了。但是刘备很聪明，他马上就辞让了。所以，把这个事情拿来作为刘备道德高尚的依据，这是腐儒之见，书呆子的看法。在荆州问题上其实不存在道德问题，因为第一，就荆州而言，由刘备来接管确实比由刘琦或由刘琮接管要保险得多，因为刘备自己本人有能力，又有诸葛亮辅佐，手下又有关羽、张飞两员大将，还在荆州那么得人心，真的是刘备接管了荆州说不定这个情况就变了，所以他接管荆州没有什么不道德的，也没有什么可让的；何况诸葛亮在《隆中对》说得很清楚，“此殆天所以资将军，将军岂有意乎？”这是老天爷送给你的，这意思就是说没有道德障碍。那么刘备为什么不接呢？说穿了也很简单，不是不忍，是不能，没有这个可能性，没有这个条件，也没有这个能力就这么接过来。
The second situation is that Liu Biao did say this, and as we said earlier, it was impossible for Liu Biao to sincerely surrender Jingzhou to Liu Bei. So why did Liu Biao entrust the state or isolate Liu Bei? Probe. Liu Biao is very clear that Liu Bei was trying to make an idea of Jingzhou, but now that Liu Biao is alive, Liu Bei dare not act recklessly. Once I die, can my two precious sons hold onto this family business? “You can’t help but find Liu Bei to test it, so he pretended and said, ‘Oh, you see my son is useless. After I die, you can take this Jingzhou!'”! “I suspect that when Liu Biao said this, the swordsmen sent by Cai Mao and his team had already been ambushed on both sides. As long as Liu Bei cheerfully stated, ‘Okay! Jingzhou will be mine after you die,’ it will definitely be chopped into meat sauce.”. But Liu Bei was very clever, and he resigned immediately. Therefore, taking this matter as the basis for Liu Bei’s moral nobility is the view of a corrupt scholar and a bookworm. In fact, there are no moral issues with Jingzhou, because first, as far as Jingzhou is concerned, taking over by Liu Bei is indeed much safer than taking over by Liu Qi or Liu Cong. Because Liu Bei has his own ability, assisted by Zhuge Liang, and under his command, there are two generals, Guan Yu and Zhang Fei, who are still so popular in Jingzhou. It is really Liu Bei who takes over Jingzhou that this situation may change, so there is nothing immoral about him taking over Jingzhou, There is nothing to concede; Moreover, Zhuge Liang clearly stated in “Long Zhong Dui”, “This is a dangerous situation, so you are a general. Did the general have any intention?” This is a gift from God, which means there is no moral barrier. So why didn’t Liu Bei take it? To put it bluntly, it’s also very simple. It’s not unbearable, it’s impossible, it doesn’t have the possibility, the condition, and the ability to just take over.
