那么妙在什么地方呢？历史有时候是很好玩儿的，它好玩在什么地方呢？正在这个节骨眼上，曹操莫名其妙地写来了一封信，帮了鲁肃的大忙。曹操这封信怎么写的呢？曹操这封信是写给孙权的，他说：“近者奉辞伐罪，旄麾南指，刘琮束手。”他说近来老夫奉皇上和朝廷的命令来讨伐那些有罪的人，老夫的军旗往南方一指，刘琮那小子就把自个儿的手捆起来了，投降了。“今治水军八十万众，方与将军会猎于吴。”现在老夫又整治了八十万水军，准备和孙权孙将军您在您待的那个地方打打猎。好大的口气，据史书的记载，这封信送到江东的时候几乎是所有人都大惊失色。曹操的这封信是本案的一个关键，因为它是这个事件的一个转折点，在此之前我们知道曹操顺江东下是打刘备的，但是如果曹操写了这封信，那么他顺江东下那就是打孙权的，曹刘战争就变成了曹孙战争，这个很重要啊，很关键的。因为在此之前孙权完全可以隔岸观火，作壁上观，因为打的是人家，现在打到自己头上了，那你还能够袖手旁观吗？不能够啊。所以我们就很想弄清楚三个问题：第一，曹操是不是写了这封信？第二，曹操为什么要写这封信？第三，曹操这封信是什么时候送到孙权手上的？
So what’s the beauty? History can be fun sometimes. Where is it fun? At this juncture, Cao Cao inexplicably wrote a letter to help Lu Su. How did Cao Cao write this letter? Cao Cao’s letter was addressed to Sun Quan, who said, “Those who are close to me will resign and commit crimes, with their tails pointed south, and Liu Cong tying his hands.” He said that recently, I have been ordered by the emperor and the imperial court to punish those who are guilty. When my military flag pointed south, Liu Cong tied up his own hands and surrendered. “Today, there are 800000 water troops under control, and we will meet the general to hunt in Wu.” Now that I have renovated 800000 water troops, I am ready to hunt with General Sun Quansun in the place where you are staying. “What a loud tone! According to historical records, almost everyone was shocked when this letter was sent to Jiangdong.”. “This letter from Cao Cao is a key point in this case, because it is a turning point in this event. Before that, we knew that Cao Cao fought against Liu Bei by going east along the river. However, if Cao Cao wrote this letter, he would have fought against Sun Quan by going east along the river, and the Cao Liu War would have turned into the Cao Sun War. This is very important and crucial.”. Before that, Sun Quan could completely watch the fire from the shore and stand on the sidelines, because it was someone else who hit him. Now that it’s on his own head, can you still stand idly by? No. So we really want to clarify three questions: First, did Cao Cao write this letter? Secondly, why did Cao Cao write this letter? Third, when did Cao Cao’s letter reach Sun Quan?
曹操这封信很可疑，因为这封信不见于《三国志》的正文，就是陈寿写《三国志》的时候没有收录这封信，记载在什么地方呢？《三国志》裴松之注引《江表传》，《江表传》是晋代人的作品，它的作者叫做虞溥，后来由他的儿子虞勃献给了晋元帝，那么它成书在《三国志》之后，陈寿当然看不到。但是，如果当时曹操当真写了这么一封信，应该说是件大事，陈寿怎么会不知道呢？这是一个可疑的地方。第二，曹操这封信写得蹊跷，他为什么要写这封信？当时曹操南下东征的时候，据《三国志·程昱传》的记载，刘备跑到了孙权那里，而曹操的谋士们都认为孙权会杀了刘备，只有程昱说不会。也就是说曹操这个时候对形势的估计无非两种，一种是孙权会杀了刘备，这用不着写封信给孙权啊；还有一种是孙权和刘备会联合起来，那就更不能写这封信了，为什么更不能写这封信呢？因为你写这封信起到的作用只能是促使他们的联盟。所以有人说这是一封恐吓信，为什么说是恐吓信呢？你看曹操的话是怎么说的，今治水军八十万众，这曹操的陆军和水军加起来他也没有八十万，他哪来的水军八十万？这明明是虚张声势嘛。当然古人这个算兵力从来就是虚张声势的，比方说十万人号称二十万。但是你打一个折扣，四十万水军也是不能的，这是虚张声势，虚张声势的目的是什么呢？恐吓，恐吓的目的是什么呢？就是跟孙权说你小子可注意了啊，老夫现在要拿下荆州干掉刘备，你别插手，一边待着去，你要乱插手的话，八十万水军，啊，老夫不是好惹的。
Cao Cao’s letter is very suspicious, because it is not found in the text of the “Three Kingdoms Annals”, which is why Chen Shou did not include this letter when he wrote the “Three Kingdoms Annals”. Where was it recorded? Pei Songzhi’s annotation in “The Records of the Three Kingdoms” cites “The Biography of Jiang Biao”, a work of the Jin Dynasty. Its author was named Yu Pu, and later his son Yu Bo dedicated it to the Yuan Emperor of Jin. Therefore, if it was written after “The Records of the Three Kingdoms”, Chen Shou would not have seen it. However, if Cao Cao had actually written such a letter at that time, it should have been a major event. How could Chen Shou not know? This is a suspicious place. Secondly, Cao Cao wrote this letter strangely. Why did he write this letter? At that time, when Cao Cao headed south for the Eastern Expedition, according to the records in “The Chronicles of the Three Kingdoms: The Biography of Cheng Yu”, Liu Bei ran to Sun Quan, and Cao Cao’s advisers believed that Sun Quan would kill Liu Bei, but only Cheng Yu said that he would not. That is to say, Cao Cao’s estimation of the situation at this time is nothing but two. One is that Sun Quan will kill Liu Bei, so there is no need to write a letter to Sun Quan; There is also a kind of association between Sun Quan and Liu Bei, which makes it even more impossible to write this letter. Why not write this letter? “Because your role in writing this letter can only be to promote their alliance.”. So some people say this is a threatening letter, why do they say it’s a threatening letter? What do you think of Cao Cao’s words? Today, there are 800000 people in the water army, and Cao Cao’s army and water army do not add up to 800000. Where did he come from? This is clearly a bluff. Of course, the ancient people’s military strength calculation has always been a bluff, such as 100000 people known as 200000. “But if you give a discount, 400000 water troops are not allowed. This is bravado. What is the purpose of bravado?”? What is the purpose of intimidation? Just tell Sun Quan that you should be careful, young man. I’m going to take Jingzhou and kill Liu Bei now. Don’t interfere, just stay there. If you want to interfere, 800000 sailors, ah, I’m not easy to provoke.
那么恐吓信的这个说法当然也有道理，不是没有道理，问题是他这样做会不会适得其反呢？当时他的重要谋士程昱就断定，刘备和孙权会联合起来，他的道理是孙权虽然很英雄，但是这个时候没有什么威望；而刘备是公认的天下枭雄，又有关羽和张飞那都是万人敌。孙权肯定要利用刘备这个力量，而刘备走投无路了也肯定要依靠孙权，所以他们非联合不可。就算没有程昱的这个话，根据曹操的一贯做法他也不应该这样。看过前面节目的观众朋友们一定记得，当时袁尚和袁熙两个跑到辽东去投靠公孙康，手下的人都主张曹操去打，曹操说用不着打，他们是同床异梦的，你要把他们逼急了他们就结成死党，我们要放他一马他们就窝里斗，等着公孙康把袁尚和袁熙的人头给我送来，结果公孙康果然把这两个人的人头给曹操送来了。那么曹操这一回为什么不像上一回一样，等着孙权把刘备的人头给他送过来呢？他为什么要采取一个相反的做法，去逼一下孙权，激一下孙权，逼得他们两个结为死党呢？就曹操的一贯作风来说他也说不通啊。而且曹操这个时候至少他会有这样一个想法，就是希望孙权能够像袁绍和刘表那样对待刘备，怎么样对待呢？供养起来，束之高阁，那也行啊，为什么要逼他们联盟呢？
So the statement of a threatening letter is certainly reasonable, not unreasonable. The question is, will it be counterproductive if he does so? At that time, his important counselor Cheng Yu concluded that Liu Bei and Sun Quan would unite. His reasoning was that although Sun Quan was a hero, he did not have much prestige at this time; Liu Bei is recognized as the world’s most powerful man, and Guan Yu and Zhang Fei are both enemies of ten thousand people. Sun Quan must take advantage of Liu Bei’s power, and Liu Bei must rely on Sun Quan if he is desperate, so they must unite. Even without Cheng Yu’s words, according to Cao Cao’s consistent practice, he should not have done so. Audience friends who have watched the previous program must remember that at that time, Yuan Shang and Yuan Xi ran to Liaodong to seek refuge with Gongsun Kang. The people under their command all advocated that Cao Cao should fight. Cao Cao said there was no need to fight. They were bedfellows, and if you push them hard, they would form a sworn enemy. If we let him go, they would fight in the dark, waiting for Gongsun Kang to bring me the heads of Yuan Shang and Yuan Xi, As a result, Gongsun Kang actually sent the heads of these two people to Cao Cao. So why didn’t Cao Cao wait for Sun Quan to deliver Liu Bei’s head to him this time, as he did the previous time? Why did he take the opposite approach, forcing Sun Quan, motivating Sun Quan, and forcing the two of them to form a sworn ally? As far as Cao Cao’s consistent style is concerned, he doesn’t make sense. And at this time, Cao Cao will at least have the idea that he hopes Sun Quan can treat Liu Bei like Yuan Shao and Liu Biao. What should he do? “It’s okay to support them and put them on hold. Why force them to join forces?”?
那么如果这封信写了，就只有一个推测，就是那是真要打孙权。那么这封信就不是恐吓信，是下战表。这当然也不是没有可能，因为曹操这个时候志得意满，骄傲得不得了。我们知道曹操这个人是非常骄傲的，小人得志，“小人得志”这四个字用在他身上很合适，他是一得意了以后他那个尾巴就翘起来当旗杆的，他藏都不藏的。这个时候他觉得自己牛得不得了，也没把孙权二十七岁这个小子放在眼里，干脆搂草打兔子，打刘备顺便把孙权也干掉算了，或者是也不真打，我写封信吓唬吓唬他，他没准就投降了。也是说不清楚，因为张昭这些人是准备投降的，如果不是鲁肃和周瑜还有诸葛亮他们来顶住，说不定也就投降了，也都是难讲的事，所以有这个可能。所以结论是，第一，曹操可能写了这封信，也可能没写；第二，如果写了这封信，那么应该是下战表。
So if this letter is written, there is only one speculation, that is, it is really going to hit Sun Quan. So this letter is not a threatening letter, it’s a battle table. This is certainly not impossible, because Cao Cao is extremely proud and proud at this time. “We know that Cao Cao is very proud, and a small person can achieve success. The four words” a small person can achieve success “are very suitable for him. Once he is satisfied, his tail will rise as a flagpole, and he will not hide it.”. At this time, he felt extremely arrogant and didn’t take Sun Quan, a 27-year-old boy, seriously. Instead, he just grabbed the grass and beat the rabbit, hit Liu Bei and killed Sun Quan, or didn’t really hit him. I wrote a letter to scare him, and he probably surrendered. It’s also unclear, because Zhang Zhao and other people are prepared to surrender. If it weren’t for Lu Su, Zhou Yu, and Zhuge Liang to resist, they might have surrendered, which is also difficult to say. Therefore, there is a possibility. So the conclusion is, first, Cao Cao may or may not have written this letter; Secondly, if I write this letter, it should be the following table.
