他这个时候正确的做法应该是把目标锁定在刘备身上，如果把目标锁定在刘备身上，他就应该怎么样呢？应该在当阳大败刘备以后乘胜追击。我们来看看地图，当时是怎么样的呢？是曹操从北边通过宛城、叶县王南进军，到了新野的时候刘琮就投降了；然后刘备在樊城，慌慌张张渡水到襄阳，然后往南跑，带着很多人，一天走十几里；曹操五千轻骑兵一日一夜三百里追上来，在当阳大败刘备，这个时候刘备往哪儿跑他追啊！他跟刘备居然分手了；刘备斜趋汉津，然后跟着鲁肃、诸葛亮、张飞、赵云啊，还有前来接应的关羽一起到夏口去了；曹操往南跑，到江陵去了。如果把目标锁定在刘备身上，这个时候应该乘胜追击，在刘备跑到夏口之前把他灭掉，顺便把鲁肃也俘虏了，他没有这样做。
The correct approach for him at this time should be to target Liu Bei. If he targets Liu Bei, what should he do? It should be pursued after the defeat of Liu Bei in Dangyang. Let’s take a look at the map. What was it like then? It was Cao Cao who marched through Wancheng and Ye County from the north, and when he arrived in Xinye, Liu Cong surrendered; Then Liu Bei was in Fancheng, hurriedly crossing the water to Xiangyang, and then running south, taking many people with him, walking more than ten miles a day; Cao Cao’s 5000 light cavalry troops chased Liu Bei three hundred miles a day and a night, defeating him in Dangyang. Where did Liu Bei run at this time? He chased him! He unexpectedly broke up with Liu Bei; Liu Bei leaned towards Hanjin, then followed Lu Su, Zhuge Liang, Zhang Fei, Zhao Yun, and Guan Yu, who had come to meet him, to Xiakou; Cao Cao ran south to Jiangling. If the target was Liu Bei, it would be time to take advantage of the victory and pursue him. Before Liu Bei ran to Xiakou, he would be killed, and Lu Su would also be captured. He did not do so.
没有这样做也还来得及，他可以在到了江陵以后马上掉转头再去追，至少可以赶在孙刘、联盟形成之前把刘备灭了。他也没有这样做，他到了江陵以后停下来了，停了多长时间呢？两个月，干什么呢？安抚荆州投降的人，做政治思想工作。这个工作也是该做的，不能说他不该做，但是你既然到了江陵而且停下来以后，你就干脆多停留一段时间，你就干脆接受采纳贾诩的建议。贾诩什么建议呢？说你这个时候不要顺江东下，你应该把这个地方安抚好，采取怀柔政策，让荆州的士民都真心诚意地归顺你，到时候江东不战而降。他不接受，两个月以后又上路了。坏就坏在这两个月，这时间叫做不长不短，如果你停留的时间短，你可以击破刘备与孙权联盟之前；如果你停留的时间长，你可以做好充分的准备等来年开春以后，不刮北风不生病的时候你再去打嘛。他在一个错误的时间发动一场错误的战争。
Without doing so, it was still too late. He could immediately turn around and pursue after arriving at Jiangling, or at least kill Liu Bei before Sun Liu and the alliance formed. He didn’t do it either. After he arrived at Jiangling, he stopped. How long did he stop? Two months, what are you doing? Appease those who surrendered in Jingzhou and do political and ideological work. This job should also be done, and it cannot be said that he should not do it. However, since you have arrived in Jiangling and stopped, you may as well stay for a longer period of time and accept Jia Xu’s suggestion. What advice does Jia Xu have? “At this time, you should not surrender to the east of the Yangtze River. You should pacify this place and adopt a gentle policy, so that all the people of Jingzhou sincerely surrender to you. At that time, Jiangdong will surrender without a fight.”. He refused and set off again two months later. “The bad thing happens in these two months, which is called neither long nor short. If you stay for a short time, you can break through the alliance between Liu Bei and Sun Quan before;”; If you stay for a long time, you can be fully prepared to wait until the spring of next year, when there is no northerly wind or illness, before you go to fight. He launched the wrong war at the wrong time.
就算这些都做不到，他其实还有一个办法，就是自己在江陵待着，派曹仁这些人，另派大将，率步兵进攻夏口，即便不能把刘备消灭，你也能把刘备堵住，或者逼着刘备往南跑去投奔苍梧太守吴巨，那也比他投奔孙权好啊。或者你的部队你来到夏口，甚至你可以进军樊口，你把这个地方扼守起来，对孙权也是威慑力量，说不定那个联盟就搞不成了，搞得成他的军队也不会来到赤壁啊。
好，就算这些你都错了，也还有挽救余地，挽救余地在哪里呢？就是你的部队在巴丘——巴丘是什么地方，就是现在湖南省的岳阳市——你在巴丘的时候得了病，别走了，停下来或者退回江陵。当然如果曹军停在巴丘，孙刘联军可能还会打过来，那就不是赤壁之战，是巴丘之战了；但是如果曹军退回江陵，估计孙刘联军就不会再往前追了，因为为它本来目的是御敌于国门之外，只要你不来打到我的地盘上那不就算了嘛，然后你再找机会嘛。
Even if none of this can be done, he actually has a way to stay in Jiangling and send Cao Ren and other senior generals to lead infantry to attack Xiakou. Even if Liu Bei cannot be wiped out, you can still block Liu Bei or force Liu Bei to run south to flee to Wu Ju, the governor of Cangwu, which is better than his defection to Sun Quan. “Or if your army comes to Xiakou, or even if you enter Fankou, you can guard this place and be a deterrent to Sun Quan. Perhaps that alliance won’t succeed, and if it succeeds, his army won’t come to Chibi.”.
Okay, even if you’re wrong about all this, there’s still room for redemption. Where’s the room for redemption? It’s your army in Baqiu – where is Baqiu, now Yueyang City in Hunan Province – you got sick while you were in Baqiu. Don’t go, stop or return to Jiangling. Of course, if Cao’s army stopped at Bachu, Sun Liu’s allied forces might still come over, it would not be the Battle of Chibi, it would be the Battle of Bachu; “But if Cao’s army retreats to Jiangling, it is estimated that the Sun Liu Allied Army will not pursue it any further, because its original purpose is to defend the enemy outside the country. As long as you don’t come and attack my territory, it won’t matter. Then you can find another opportunity.”.
他也没有这样做，这些事情曹操都没有做。为什么没有这样做呢？以曹操这样一个军事大家怎么会犯这样一系列的错误呢？很多学者的结论是骄傲轻敌，由于骄傲轻敌，他对孙、刘联盟的估计不足，他总认为孙权会像公孙康一样把刘备的人头给他送过来，他没想到孙权不是公孙康，此时也不是彼时。曹操前期之所以在中国北方连续取得胜利是因为当时群雄割据，互相争斗，曹操收了渔翁之利，现在他把这些诸侯都收拾完了，只剩下刘备和孙权了，他们能不联合吗？他们不联合就是死路一条啊，他们必定是铁了心联合起来对付你，曹操没有估计到。所以说曹操之败在与骄傲，孙、刘之胜在于联盟。至于其他的问题，说什么没有估计到会刮东南风啊那些，都是小问题。
He didn’t do it either. Cao Cao didn’t do any of these things. Why didn’t you do this? How could a military master like Cao Cao make such a series of mistakes? Many scholars have concluded that pride belittles the enemy. Due to pride belittling the enemy, he underestimated the alliance between Sun and Liu. He always believed that Sun Quan would send Liu Bei’s head to him like Gongsun Kang. He did not expect that Sun Quan was not Gongsun Kang, nor was it then. The reason why Cao Cao successively won victories in northern China in the early days was because the feudal lords were divided and fought against each other, and Cao Cao took advantage of the situation. Now that he has cleaned up all these vassals, only Liu Bei and Sun Quan remain. Can they not unite? “If they don’t unite, they will have a dead end. They must have united with an iron heart to deal with you. Cao Cao didn’t expect it.”. Therefore, Cao Cao’s defeat lies in his pride, while Sun and Liu’s victory lies in their alliance. As for other issues, it’s not expected that there will be southeast winds. Those are all minor issues.
另外，这里面还有一个可能是小原因，就是年龄，这个是吴晗先生指出来的。吴晗先生说赤壁之战的时候，孙权27岁，诸葛亮27岁，周瑜34岁，鲁肃37岁，曹操54岁，吴晗先生说赤壁之战是被进攻的打败了进攻的，哀兵打败了骄兵，年轻人打败了老头子。其实吴晗先生还有一个人没有算进去，就是刘备，刘备当时多少岁呢，47岁，如果把刘备加进去，那么孙刘联军这边的首脑人物的平均年龄是多少呢？34岁，正是周瑜的年龄，所以赤壁之战也可以说是周瑜打败了曹操，34岁的打败了54岁的。
不过曹操虽然老了，败了，但是笑傲江湖的英雄本色依然故我。曹操从华容道冲出去以后，又笑了。大家问他说，丞相为什么要高兴啊？曹操说：哈哈，“刘备，吴俦也”，刘备确实是我的对手；可惜的是，他动作总是晚了一点，他如果在这个地方埋下伏兵堵起来，再放一把火，我们这些人骨灰都没有了。这一回，战败的曹操他又笑了，那么他能笑到最后吗？请看下集——半途而废。
In addition, there may be a small reason, namely, age, which was pointed out by Mr. Wu Han. Mr. Wu Han said that during the Battle of Chibi, Sun Quan was 27 years old, Zhuge Liang was 27 years old, Zhou Yu was 34 years old, Lu Su was 37 years old, and Cao Cao was 54 years old. Mr. Wu Han said that the Battle of Chibi was defeated by the attackers, the mourners defeated the proud soldiers, and the young people defeated the old man. In fact, Mr. Wu Han still has one person who has not been included, namely Liu Bei. How old was Liu Bei at that time, 47 years old. If Liu Bei is included, what is the average age of the leaders of the Sun Liu Allied Army? At the age of 34, Zhou Yu is exactly the same age, so the Battle of Chibi can also be said to be that Zhou Yu defeated Cao Cao, and the 34 year old defeated the 54 year old.
However, although Cao Cao is old and defeated, his heroic qualities in the Jianghu remain the same. After Cao Cao rushed out of Huarong Road, he smiled again. Everyone asked him, “Why should the Prime Minister be happy?”? Cao Cao said, “Ha ha, Liu Bei, Wu Shuang, too.” Liu Bei is indeed my opponent; Unfortunately, he always moves a bit late. If he buries an ambush in this place and blocks it up, and sets off a fire, we people will have no ashes left. This time, the defeated Cao Cao smiled again. Can he laugh until the end? Please watch the next episode – Give up halfway.
