第二点，知己知彼，胸有成竹。陆逊在给孙权的信里面分析了刘备必定失败的三个原因，第一点是刘备劳师远征，远离自己的大本营到我们的地盘里来打仗，这是第一点。第二点他说，纵观刘备一生，虽然经历了很多次战争，但是总的来说胜少败多，不是个会打仗的人。第三点就是刘备犯了一个致命的错误，舍船就步，本来他最好的办法就是水陆并进，但是他放弃了。所以陆逊对孙权说，我有把握战胜刘备，这是第二个原因。
第三个就是沉着应战，后发制人。我觉得在夷陵、猇亭之战里面，心理战的成分占了很大的比例，很重要的一个原因就是刘备浮躁、陆逊沉着。刘备初战告捷以后，他曾经派一支军队把孙桓将军团团围在夷道这个地方。孙桓是什么人呢？是孙权同族的侄辈。这个孙桓就向陆逊求援了，陆逊说不去，用不着去，为什么呢？第一，安东中郞将威望很高，他的手下的将士都拥戴他；第二，夷道这个地方金城汤池，守得住，我们不用去救援。等到我这里我的计谋成功之后，他那边的围你不救自解。果然，陆逊这边一放火，夷道那边的围就解了。事后孙桓还特地对陆逊说，当时将军不来救我我确实是很有怨言，很埋怨的，现在才觉得大帅真是指挥若定啊。那么陆逊做这样一个决策他是冒风险的，万一把孙权一侄子弄没了呢？你开得玩笑的？他真是沉得住气，那么这是第三个原因。
The second point is to know yourself and your enemy, and have a plan in mind. In his letter to Sun Quan, Lu Xun analyzed three reasons why Liu Bei was bound to fail. The first point was that Liu Bei had to go on an expedition and stay away from his base camp to fight in our territory. This was the first point. Secondly, he said that throughout Liu Bei’s life, although he had experienced many wars, on the whole, he had won less and lost more, and was not a person who could fight. The third point is that Liu Bei made a fatal mistake and left the boat alone. Originally, his best way was to go both land and water, but he gave up. Therefore, Lu Xun said to Sun Quan, “I am confident of defeating Liu Bei. This is the second reason.”.
The third is to calmly respond to the challenge and attack later. I think psychological warfare accounted for a large proportion of the battles between Yiling and Xiaoting. One important reason was Liu Bei’s fickleness and Lu Xun’s composure. After Liu Bei’s victory in the first battle, he once sent an army to surround Sun Huan’s army in the place of Yidao. Who is Sun Huan? He is a nephew of Sun Quan’s family. This Sun Huan asked Lu Xun for help. Lu Xun said he wouldn’t go and didn’t need to go. Why? First, General Anton Zhonglang has a high prestige, and all his soldiers support him; Second, Yidao is a place of golden city, which can be defended. We don’t need to go to rescue. After my plan succeeds here, you will not save yourself from the siege on his side. Sure enough, as soon as Lu Xun set fire on his side, the encirclement on the other side of the Yidao was relieved. After that, Sun Huan specifically told Lu Xun, “I really had a lot of complaints and complaints about the general not coming to save me at that time. Now I feel that the commander is really commanding.”. So Lu Xun took a risk in making such a decision. What if he lost Sun Quan and his nephew? Are you kidding? “He’s really calm, so that’s the third reason.”.
第四个原因，也就是最重要的原因，是忍辱负重，一心为公。我刚才讲了陆逊做这样一些决策是有风险的，他能够这样做是因为他有底气。陆逊本人，我们上一集讲过，未有远名，不是一个名气很大的人，不是一个元老宿将。而他率领的部下全都是一些有战功的老将军，要么就是亲贵，这些人开始不大听他指挥，叫谁谁不动。陆逊有一次召开会议，把所有的将领都找来，手按着宝剑，站起来说：诸位注意，刘备，天下枭雄，不是一个好对付的人。现在主公把这样一副重任托付给了我们，我们每个人都应该团结起来，都应该振奋自己的士气，来对付这个厉害的、狡猾的敌人。在军言军，令行禁止，请大家好自为之，本帅可是有言在先了。一番义正词严，这些人就开始听他的话。事后，孙权曾经问过陆逊，说你手下那些将领不听你指挥，你怎么不向寡人报告呢？陆逊他说：这些将军们都是我们国家的栋梁，都是主公今后要依仗的人。陆逊自己也确实没有什么本事，只有一条优点，就是忍辱负重。再说了，陆逊虽然愚钝，但蔺相如的故事还是听过的。就知道大局为重，团队同志。
The fourth and most important reason is to endure humiliation and serve the public wholeheartedly. I just mentioned that Lu Xun has risks in making such decisions, and he can do so because he has the confidence. Lu Xun himself, as we said in the previous episode, is not far from famous, not a well-known person, not a veteran general. “The subordinates he led were all old generals who had fought well, or were close to nobles. At first, these people didn’t listen to his command very much, and whoever they asked wouldn’t move.”. Lu Xun once held a meeting and called for all the generals. With his sword in his hand, he stood up and said, “Attention, everyone, Liu Bei, the leader of the world, is not a difficult person to deal with.”. Now that the Lord has entrusted us with such a heavy responsibility, we should all unite and boost our morale to deal with this formidable and cunning enemy. “In the army, we are in charge of the army, orders and prohibitions. Please take good care of yourself. I have something to say first.”. After a few words of righteousness, these people began to listen to him. Later, Sun Quan once asked Lu Xun, saying that those generals under you did not follow your command. Why didn’t you report to me? Lu Xun said, “These generals are the pillars of our country, and they are the people the Lord will rely on in the future.”. Lu Xun really doesn’t have much ability himself. He only has one advantage, which is to endure humiliation. Moreover, although Lu Xun is dull, he has heard the story of Lin Xiangru. I know that the overall situation is important, team comrades.
所以这就是夷陵、猇亭之战，陆逊取得胜利，而刘备失败的原因。那么这场战争形势的逆转，也是可以说是在转眼之间。刘备从猇亭逃到马鞍山，又从马鞍山逃到巫县，最后又从巫县到了被他改名为永安的鱼复县，也就是现在重庆的奉节。到了这个地方以后，遭受沉重打击的刘备心力交瘁，一病不起。刘备很清楚，他这一生的英雄生涯很快就要结束了，他将不久于人世，而他开创的蜀汉政权还必须延续下去。他心里也很明白，接替他皇位的将是他的长子刘禅，而刘禅现在只有十七岁，还是未成年人，他必须找到得力的人来辅佐他。问题是，这个得力的人能够不负他的厚望吗？他应该怎样做一个交待，才能够保证刘禅得到最好的辅佐，蜀汉政权能够延续下去呢？请看下集——永安托孤。
So this is the reason why Lu Xun won the battle between Yiling and Xiaoting, while Liu Bei failed. The reversal of the situation in this war can also be said to be in the blink of an eye. Liu Bei fled from Xiaoting to Ma’anshan, from Ma’anshan to Wuxian, and finally from Wuxian to Yufu County, which he renamed Yong’an, now known as Fengjie in Chongqing. After arriving at this place, Liu Bei, who had suffered a heavy blow, was mentally exhausted and unable to recover from a single illness. Liu Bei is well aware that his heroic career in this lifetime will soon come to an end, that he will soon die, and that the Shu Han regime he founded must continue. He also understood in his heart that his eldest son, Liu Chan, would take over the throne. Liu Chan is only seventeen years old and still a minor. He must find someone capable of assisting him. The question is, can this capable person live up to his high expectations? How should he make a confession to ensure that Liu Chan receives the best assistance and that the Shu Han regime can continue? Please take a look at the next episode – Yong’an Tuogu.
