那么这一次对于曹操来说那是一个惨败了，但是曹操没有把责任推到别人身上，这是曹操了不起的地方，他甚至没有追究主张接受张绣投降的那些人。换了别人，比方说袁绍或者袁术，他肯定要追究：当时是张绣要假投降——他肯定现在要说张绣是假投降，——张绣当时假投降是谁主张赞成的？曹操没有，自己做检讨。他把部队召集起来跟将领们说：这次是我错了，而且我知道我错在哪里了，我接受张绣投降的时候我应该扣他一个儿子在我军营里作人质，我没做这件事，我错了，我下回不会再错了。这个应该说是曹操了不起的地方。
＊曹操为什么会在南征张绣的战争中失利？根据易中天先生的分析，曹操是得意忘形，做了两件不该做的事情，结果导致了投降的张绣突然反叛，打了他一个措手不及。这是曹操不够成熟的表现，但是，曹操没有推卸责任，而是主动做检讨，承认了错误。那么，在接下来和张绣的几次较量中，曹操变得成熟了吗？
So this time it was a fiasco for Cao Cao, but Cao Cao didn’t blame anyone else. This is what Cao Cao is great about. He didn’t even pursue those who advocated accepting Zhang Xiu’s surrender. If someone else, such as Yuan Shao or Yuan Shu, were to be investigated, he must have said that it was Zhang Xiu who wanted to fake surrender – he must have said that Zhang Xiu was fake surrender now – who advocated Zhang Xiu’s fake surrender at that time? Cao Cao didn’t, so he made his own review. “He summoned the troops and said to the generals, ‘This time I was wrong, and I know where I was wrong. When I accepted Zhang Xiu’s surrender, I should have taken one of his sons hostage in my military camp. I didn’t do this, I was wrong, and I won’t be wrong again next time.'”. This should be said to be a great place for Cao Cao.
Why did Cao Cao lose the war of the Southern Expedition against Zhang Xiu? According to Mr. Yi Zhongtian’s analysis, Cao Cao was ecstatic and did two things he shouldn’t have done, resulting in the surrender of Zhang Xiu’s sudden rebellion, which caught him off guard. This is a sign that Cao Cao is not mature enough, but instead of shirking his responsibility, he took the initiative to review and admit his mistakes. So, in the next few battles with Zhang Xiu, did Cao Cao become mature?
但是一个人要成熟也没那么快，曹操也一样。所以到了第二次，也就是汉献帝建安二年的十一月，曹操再次南征张绣的时候，就把张绣打了个落花流水。曹操这一次虽然是吸取了上次的教训，不骄傲了，不翘尾巴了，取得了胜利了，不等于他下次还要胜利。那么到了第三次，汉献帝建安三年的时候，四月份，曹操三征张绣，这一次又差点栽个大跟头。当时曹操的军师叫做荀攸，我讲过了，荀攸是曹操前期五大谋士之一，他当时的官职叫做军师祭酒，军师祭酒这个官职是曹操发明的，相当于现在的参谋，随军作战参谋。荀攸就建议曹操不要打张绣，他说张绣上次被您打到穰城以后，他就和刘表结成了联盟，由刘表提供粮草，而刘表这个人他是不会当真给张绣提供粮草的，所以张绣和刘表两个人总有一天他们自己要打起来，我们不如等一等。你现在把他们逼急了，他们两个就结成死党，联合起来打我们，对我们不利。曹操不听，结果怎么样呢？结果果然刘表和张绣结成死党，联合起来打曹操。
But a person doesn’t mature so quickly, neither does Cao Cao. So the second time, in November of the second year of Jian’an, Emperor Xiandi of the Han Dynasty, when Cao Cao again attacked Zhang Xiu in the south, he beat Zhang Xiu to pieces. “Although Cao Cao has learned the lesson of the previous time, he has not been arrogant or cocky, and has achieved victory, it does not mean that he will win again next time.”. Then on the third occasion, in the third year of Emperor Xian’s reign in Jian’an, in April, Cao Cao attacked Zhang Xiu three times, and this time, he almost suffered a big setback. At that time, Cao Cao’s military adviser was called Xun You. As I mentioned, Xun You was one of the five great counselors in the early days of Cao Cao. His official position at that time was called Military Adviser’s Tribute to Wine. The official position of Military Adviser’s Tribute to Wine was invented by Cao Cao, which is equivalent to the current military adviser, serving as a combat adviser with the army. Xun You advised Cao Cao not to fight Zhang Xiu. He said that since Zhang Xiu was beaten by you to Rangcheng last time, he had formed an alliance with Liu Biao, who would provide food and grass for Zhang Xiu. Liu Biao, as a person, would not seriously provide food and grass for Zhang Xiu. Therefore, Zhang Xiu and Liu Biao will fight each other one day. We might as well wait. “If you push them too hard now, the two of them will form a sworn ally and unite to fight us, which will be detrimental to us.”. What happens if Cao Cao doesn’t listen? As expected, Liu Biao and Zhang Xiu formed a sworn ally and joined forces to fight Cao Cao.
这个时候曹操就下令撤军，曹操一下令撤军张绣就高兴了，马上下令追击，贾诩拦住，将军万万不可追，你追，必败。张绣说，不会啦，这曹操已经逃跑啦，我们不乘胜追击啊？他说追！结果怎么样呢？结果被曹操打得大败，丢盔卸甲，灰溜溜地回来了。刚刚坐下，一口水还没喝呢，贾诩说，将军，赶快再追！张绣说，先生这话我就听不懂了，上次张绣要去追先生说不能追，现在张绣都打败回来了先生说赶快追，什么意思啊？贾诩说你不要问什么意思了，你现在追就是。张绣想这个，这个没道理啊，但是一想这个贾诩真是料事如神，那就追吧！好，了不起我再败一回。又收拾他的残兵败将，又追过去，大胜而归。这回来以后张绣就对贾诩佩服得五体投地了，先生，第一回张绣是以精兵追退兵，先生说必败；第二回张绣以败兵追胜兵，先生又说必胜，张绣左思右想它怎么都想不明白，先生能不能指点一下？。嗨，贾诩说，这个事情其实非常地简单，将军你想一想，曹操和我们作战，他有失利吗？没有；他有失误吗？没有；他有失策吗？没有，那他为什么要撤退？一定是他后面出事了，一定是他后院失火，朝中出事，所以他是撤退，不是溃退，他是有计划地撤军，因此以曹公之英明必亲自断后。将军您虽然是英勇善战，实话实说，论打仗，比曹公那还差一点，所以将军这样追上去以后遇到亲自断后的是曹公，你必败；而曹操之所以赶回去是他朝中出事了，所以他一定要匆忙赶路，他既然发现你已经被打败了，他一定不再亲自断后，他一定率领前军往前面走了，断后的一定是打不过将军你的，所以你必胜。哎呀，张绣说，贾先生你真是料事如神啊！实际上我们看《三国演义》总说诸葛亮料事如神，会打仗，那比贾诩老实说是不如的。
At this moment, Cao Cao ordered the withdrawal of the army. As soon as Cao Cao ordered the withdrawal of the army, Zhang Xiu was pleased and immediately ordered the pursuit. Jia Xu stopped him. The general must not pursue him. If you pursue him, you will be defeated. “Zhang Xiu said, ‘No way, this Cao Cao has already escaped. Why don’t we take advantage of the victory and pursue him?'”? He said chase! What was the result? “As a result, he was beaten badly by Cao Cao, threw away his armor and came back disheartened.”. “I just sat down and haven’t taken a sip of water yet,” Jia Xu said. “General, hurry up and chase me again!”! “Zhang Xiu said, ‘I can’t understand what you said, sir. Last time, Zhang Xiu wanted to pursue the master and said that he couldn’t pursue it. Now that Zhang Xiu has defeated him, the master said,’ Hurry up! ‘What does that mean?”? Jia Xu said you shouldn’t ask any questions. You can just follow him now. Zhang Xiu thinks about this, which makes no sense. But when he thinks about this Jia Xu, he really knows what to expect, so let’s chase him! Okay, great. I’ll lose again. He picked up his remaining soldiers and defeated generals, chased them over again, and returned victoriously. After this return, Zhang Xiu admired Jia Xu with all his heart and soul. Sir, Zhang Xiu pursued and retreated with his elite troops for the first time, and he said that he would lose; The second time Zhang Xiu chased the victorious army with a defeated one, and the gentleman said that he would win. Zhang Xiu thought it over and over and couldn’t figure it out. Could you give me some guidance, sir?. “Hey, Jia Xu said, this matter is actually very simple. General, if you think about it, Cao Cao fought with us, did he lose?”? No, Did he make a mistake? No, Did he make a mistake? No, then why did he withdraw? There must have been an accident behind him. There must have been a fire in his backyard and an accident in the middle of the court. Therefore, he withdrew, not in rout. He withdrew troops in a planned manner. Therefore, with the wisdom of Cao Gong, he would personally end the rear. Although you are brave and good at fighting, to be honest, in terms of war, you are a bit worse than Cao Gong. Therefore, when the general catches up with you like this, it is Cao Gong who personally ends up, and you will be defeated; The reason why Cao Cao rushed back was that he had an accident in the middle of the court, so he must hurry on. Since he found that you had been defeated, he must not personally break the line. He must have led the former army forward, and the broken line must not defeat the general, so you must win. “Oh, Zhang Xiu said, Mr. Jia, you really predicted everything like God!”! In fact, when we read “The Romance of the Three Kingdoms”, we always say that Zhuge Liang predicted things like God and would fight, which is not as good as Jia Xu’s honesty.
＊神机妙算的贾诩在小说《三国演义》中所占的篇幅并不多，远远比不上同样神机妙算的诸葛亮。但通过易中天先生的分析我们知道，在真实的三国历史上，贾诩是一个非常聪明的人。那么，贾诩预料曹操撤退是事出有因，他的预料正确吗？
正确。曹操之所以撤军，是他得到了一份紧急情报，说袁绍的谋士田丰向袁绍建议，趁着曹操打张绣的时候赶快突袭许都，把那皇帝给我抢回来。这个皇帝比张绣重要多了，所以曹操赶快撤军。
“Jia Xu, who was clever and skillful in his novel The Romance of the Three Kingdoms, did not occupy much space, far less than Zhuge Liang, who was also clever and skillful in his work.”. But through Mr. Yi Zhongtian’s analysis, we know that in the true history of the Three Kingdoms, Jia Xu was a very intelligent person. So, Jia Xu predicted that Cao Cao’s retreat had a reason. Was his prediction correct?
correct. The reason why Cao Cao withdrew was that he received an urgent intelligence report saying that Tian Feng, Yuan Shao’s counselor, suggested to Yuan Shao that while Cao Cao was attacking Zhang Xiu, he quickly raid Xu Du and snatch the emperor back from me. This emperor was much more important than Zhang Xiu, so Cao Cao quickly withdrew his troops.
