[画外音]魏延所建议的“子午谷奇谋”是一项极具桃战性的北伐战略，跟当年韩信的“暗渡陈仓”没有区别，全都危险万分，但是打仗贵在出奇，出奇才能制胜。令人不解的是，诸葛亮口口声声要北伐，然而魏延提出的这个“子午谷奇谋”，他最终却没有采纳。因此历史学家们便争论不休。有人认为诸葛亮过于谨慎坐失良机，也有人认为魏延的计谋风险太大无法实施，那么易中天先生怎样看待这个问题？他又有着什么不同于前人的看法呢？
但是我觉得他们算的都是军事账，军事我不懂，我也很难说他们这个军事账谁算对了谁算错了，而我觉得呢，诸葛亮他首先是一位杰出的政治家，政治家在进行军事部署的时候，首先算的是政治账，因为我们知道战争是政治的延续。战争的目的无一不是政治的目的，所以诸葛亮肯定要先算政治账。因此我们就要问一个问题了，诸葛亮算的是一笔什么样的政治账呢？
要回答这个问题就必须弄清楚诸葛亮北伐的目的，他为什么要北伐？他北伐的目的、动机、目标是什么？这个问题《出师表》有回答。因为诸葛亮出兵之前给刘禅上了一道《出师表》，是大家非常熟悉的，《出师表》里面诸葛亮就锁定了北伐的目标，是十六个字，“北定中原，攘除奸凶，兴复汉室，还于旧都”。目标是什么，就是要把北方把它搞掂了，把曹魏这些奸凶除掉，把大汉王朝恢复起来，让我们的皇上重新回到洛阳去当皇帝，这是北伐的目标。
那么我们又要问，这个目标实现了呜？没有。那我们又要问，这个目标为什么没有实现呢？三个原因。
[Voice over] Wei Yan’s proposed “Ziwu Valley Raid” is a highly peach war oriented Northern Expedition strategy, no different from Han Xin’s “sneaking through the old warehouse” in those days, all of which are extremely dangerous. However, in war, it is important to be surprised, and it is surprising that we can win. It is puzzling that Zhuge Liang insisted on the Northern Expedition, but Wei Yan proposed this “Ziwu Valley miracle”, which he ultimately failed to adopt. Therefore, historians have been arguing endlessly. Some people believe that Zhuge Liang was too cautious and missed the opportunity, while others believe that Wei Yan’s strategy was too risky to implement. How does Mr. Yi Zhongtian view this issue? What is his different view from that of his predecessors?
“But I think they all calculate military accounts, and I don’t understand military affairs. It’s difficult for me to say who is right and who is wrong in their military accounts. And I think that Zhuge Liang is first and foremost an outstanding politician. When politicians conduct military deployments, they first calculate political accounts, because we know that war is the continuation of politics.”. The purpose of war is not political, so Zhuge Liang must first calculate political accounts. Therefore, we have to ask a question: What kind of political account did Zhuge Liang calculate?
To answer this question, it is necessary to clarify the purpose of Zhuge Liang’s Northern Expedition. Why did he want to do so? What was his purpose, motivation, and goal of the Northern Expedition? This question is answered in the “Graduation Table”. Because before Zhuge Liang sent out the army, he gave Liu Chan a “Departure Table”, which is very familiar to everyone. In the “Departure Table”, Zhuge Liang identified the target of the Northern Expedition, with 16 words: “Northern positioning of the Central Plains, fighting off evil, reviving the Han family, and returning to the old capital.”. What is the goal? It is to get the north to deal with it, eliminate the villains such as Cao and Wei, restore the Han Dynasty, and let our emperor return to Luoyang as emperor. This is the goal of the Northern Expedition.
So we have to ask again, has this goal been achieved? No, Then we have to ask, why has this goal not been achieved? Three reasons.
第一个原因，曹魏非速亡之国，刘备去世以后，诸葛亮接管了蜀汉的政权，这个时候，曹魏那边是一片欣喜，因为他们始终是把刘备当作头号敌人的，诸葛亮它觉得还可以打打主意。于是曹魏那边许多人给诸葛亮写信，劝他投降，诸葛亮设有给他们回信，但是写了一篇文章叫《正议》，大义凛然地回答了这些劝降的人。在这篇文童里面，诸葛亮提出了一个观点，叫做“据正道而临有罪”，什么意思呢？就是我蜀汉手上掌握着正义，而你们曹魏是有罪的。据正道而临有罪是战无不胜的，是一定能够成功的。
那么这个话呢，我们也要分析，我们要问一问，曹魏有罪呜？没有。东汉末年，天下大乱，诸侯割据，民不聊生，这个时候统一是唯一的出路，只有天下统一，人民才能重新过上安居乐业的生活，社会才会安定，生产力才能得到发展。在这样的清况下，谁能够平定天下，谁能够使天下重归统一，谁就是对的。那么到了三国时期，魏、蜀、吴三家鼎立，这三家你从正面上说，它们都是想恢复天下统一的，从这个角度讲，可以说魏蜀吴都是正道；从反面说，它们都想独霸天下，都不让人家来统一，从这个角度讲，它们都有问题。所以魏蜀吴三家不存在谁正道、谁有罪的问题。这是第一点。
第二个我们要问，蜀汉就是正道呜？你说你面对曹魏“据正道而临有罪”，你面对刘表、刘璋的时候，请问刘表、刘璋有罪呜？刘表、刘璋没罪，你为什么把人家的地盘夺了？你夺了刘表、刘璋的地盘，你夺了荆州、夺了益州是靠的正道呜？所以这个说法，作为政治口号喊一喊是可以的，用来鼓舞蜀汉军民的士气也是可以的，别当真，当真就是书呆子。
何况我们还有一个问题，就是曹魏方面他自己认为有罪呜？他有负罪感呜？没有啊。曹操他们是很困难，曹魏在建国的道路上也确实是坎坷不平的，困难重重，那是什么原因呢？是因为他们有罪呜？不是的。是因为当时士族不支持。士族为什么不支持曹操呢？一是瞧不起他这个阉宦遗丑，就是曹操出身不好，宦官后代，清高的士族瞧不起他；第二，士族不喜欢曹操的唯才是举，什么唯才是举，唯才是举就是不让我们当官嘛，那这个问题曹丕解决了。曹丕一接过魏王的爵位，马上就实行了九品中正制，保证这些士族世世代代都可以做官，通过这个办法和士族讨价还价，达成政治交易，致使士族阶层都支持曹魏了。
The first reason is that Cao Wei was not a rapidly perishing country. After Liu Bei’s death, Zhuge Liang took over the regime of Shu Han. At this time, there was great joy in Cao Wei because they always regarded Liu Bei as the number one enemy, and Zhuge Liang felt that he could still make up his mind. So many people from the Cao Wei side wrote to Zhuge Liang to persuade him to surrender. Zhuge Liang set out to reply to them, but wrote an article called “Zhengyi”, and solemnly replied to those who had persuaded him to surrender. In this article, Zhuge Liang put forward a viewpoint called “facing guilt according to the right path.” What does it mean? It is my Shu Han who holds justice, and your Cao Wei is guilty. According to the right path, facing guilt is invincible and is bound to succeed.
What about this sentence? We also need to analyze it and ask, Is Cao Wei guilty? No, In the late Eastern Han Dynasty, there was great chaos in the world, with feudal separatism and the people struggling to make ends meet. At this time, unity was the only way out. Only when the world was unified can the people live and work in peace and contentment again, society would be stable, and productive forces would be developed. In such a clear situation, whoever can calm the world and reunify it is right. During the Three Kingdoms period, the Wei, Shu, and Wu families stood at the top of each other. From a positive perspective, these three families all wanted to restore the unity of the world. From this perspective, it can be said that the Wei, Shu, and Wu families were all orthodox; On the contrary, they both want to dominate the world and refuse to let others unify them. From this perspective, they all have problems. Therefore, there is no question of who is righteous and who is guilty among the three families of Wei, Shu, and Wu. This is the first point.
Secondly, we need to ask, is Shu Han the right path? You said that you were “facing guilt according to the right path” in the face of Cao Wei. When you faced Liu Biao and Liu Zhang, did you ask if Liu Biao and Liu Zhang were guilty? Liu Biao and Liu Zhang are not guilty. Why did you take their land? You took the territory of Liu Biao and Liu Zhang, and you took Jingzhou and Yizhou by the right way? Therefore, this statement can be used as a political slogan to shout, and it can also be used to inspire the morale of the army and people of the Shu Han Dynasty. Don’t take it seriously, it’s just a nerd.
What’s more, we still have a question, which is that Cao Wei himself believes that he is guilty? Does he feel guilty? Not at all. Cao Cao and his family were very difficult, and Cao Wei’s path to the founding of the country was indeed bumpy and fraught with difficulties. What was the reason for that? Is it because they are guilty? no, it isn’t. It was because the gentry did not support it at that time. Why didn’t the gentry support Cao Cao? One is to despise him as an eunuch with a legacy of ugliness, that is, Cao Cao was born in a bad family, and the descendants of eunuchs and noble scholars despised him; Secondly, the gentry did not like Cao Cao’s meritocracy. What meritocracy is, meritocracy means that we are not allowed to become officials. Then Cao Pi solved this problem. As soon as Cao Pi took over the title of the King of Wei, he immediately implemented the system of nine ranks of officials, ensuring that these noble families could serve as officials for generations. Through this method, he negotiated with the noble families and reached political deals, resulting in the support of the noble class for Cao Wei.
