Take Offence For Defence

所以胡三喜注《资治通鉴》的时候就说了一个观点,说诸葛亮为什么不采用魏延的子午谷奇谋呢?很多人都认为是诸葛亮胆小怕事,那是不对的,诸葛亮不胆小怕事,是他非常清楚魏主之明略,司马懿辈不可轻也。就是诸葛亮心里非常清楚,曹魏现在的国君不是昏君,将帅都是人才,没那么容易就被你消灭的。这是第一,曹魏非速亡之国。

第二点,益州非进取之地。益州这个地方的特点是什么呢?易守难攻。周边是崇山峻岭,中间是成都平原,四季常青,沃野千里,物产丰富,所以你到了这个地方,你避难可以,守成可以,出击困难。蜀道之难难于上青天,你军队都出不去,所以刘备当年在荆州的时候,他是不可不取益州,因为他在荆州他是变成了三明治,北边有曹魏,东边有孙吴,夹着他,他发展空间很小,他的发展只能往西走,只能去取益州。这是没有选择的,不能说他选错了。但是他进了益州又丢了荆州以后,他就等于既进了保险箱又进了死胡同。崇山竣岭把他围起来了。这个时候关起门来过日子奔小康,那是可以的,冲出门去图天下那是不可以的。所以田余庆先生说了十六个字,叫做“刘备出峡,全军覆没,诸葛北伐,积年无成”。就是你蜀国只要出兵就肯定是失败,刘备出去全军覆设,诸葛亮不停地北上,什么事都没做成。这个事情它不是谁想怎么样就可以怎么样的,不是人力所为,用现在的话说,非人力抗拒之原因。所以蜀汉政权命中注定偏霸。“偏霸”这两个字是田余庆先生提出来的,我认为精准,既不是偏安,也不是称霸,是偏霸,偏一隅而霸。在这个问题上,温庭筠的诗是说的很准的,叫做“中原得鹿不由人”,由不得你,这是客观条件的限制。

So when Hu Sanxi annotated the “Zizhi Tongjian”, he said a point, why didn’t Zhuge Liang adopt Wei Yan’s Ziwu Valley plot? Many people believe that Zhuge Liang is timid and afraid of things, which is wrong. Zhuge Liang is not timid and afraid of things. He is very clear about the wisdom and strategy of the Wei Lord, and the Sima Yi generation should not be taken lightly. “Zhuge Liang is very clear in his heart that the current monarch of Cao Wei is not a fatuous monarch, and the generals are all talented, so it is not easy for you to eliminate them.”. This is the first time that Cao Wei was not a rapidly perishing country.
Second, Yizhou is not a place of enterprise. What are the characteristics of Yizhou? Easy to defend, difficult to attack. Surrounded by lofty mountains and mountains, and in the middle is the Chengdu Plain, which is evergreen throughout the year, with fertile fields and abundant resources. Therefore, when you arrive at this place, you can take refuge, defend yourself, and attack with difficulty. The difficulty of the Shu Road is harder than reaching the sky, and your army cannot even get out. So when Liu Bei was in Jingzhou, he had to take Yizhou, because he became a sandwich in Jingzhou. There was Cao Wei in the north and Sun Wu in the east, with him in his arms. His development space was very small, and he could only go west and only go to Yizhou. There is no choice, and it cannot be said that he chose the wrong one. But after he entered Yizhou and lost Jingzhou, he was both in the safe and in a dead end. The high mountains surrounded him. At this time, it is possible to close the door and live a well-off life, but it is not possible to rush out of the door and explore the world. So Mr. Tian Yuqing said sixteen words, “Liu Bei left the gorge, the entire army was destroyed, and Zhuge’s Northern Expedition left no success for years.”. “As long as your country of Shu sends troops, it is certain that it will fail. Liu Bei goes out and the entire army is covered, and Zhuge Liang keeps moving north, and nothing is accomplished.”. “This matter is not something that can be done by anyone who wants it to be done. It is not a matter of human effort. In current words, it is not the reason for human resistance.”. Therefore, the Shu Han regime is destined to be partial to hegemony. The word “partial hegemony” was put forward by Mr. Tian Yuqing. I believe that accuracy is neither partial security nor hegemony, but partial hegemony, which is based on one corner. On this issue, Wen Tingyun’s poem is very accurate. It is called “The deer in the Central Plains cannot be obtained by people,” and it cannot be determined by you. This is a limitation of objective conditions.

第三个原因,诸葛非将略之才。关于诸葛亮的才能其实原本是有定论的,没有什么必要来争议,陈寿说的很清楚,也是十六个字,“治戎为长,奇谋为短,理民之干,优于将略”,这是陈寿对诸葛亮能力的非常准确的评价。这个评价的意思是说,诸葛亮的政治才能高于他的军事才能,在他的军事才能当中,治军的能力高于用兵的能力,非常准确,有什么好争议的呢?之所以有人争议,是有这么一个证据,是据《三国志.诸葛亮传》说诸葛亮病逝退兵以后,司马懿打过来,过来以后巡视了诸葛亮留下的军营,说了这么一句话,天下奇才也。很多人就根据这句话认定诸葛亮就是杰出的军事家,天下奇才;他不知道,司马懿这个时候肯定的恰恰是他的治军。就是说诸葛亮治国是一流的,治军也是没有问题的,会治军不等于会用兵,对于他的用兵司马懿另有评价,这个评价在哪里呢?在《晋书·宣帝传》。原文是这样的,“亮志大而不见机,多谋而少决,好兵而无权”,什么意思呢?就是他的志向很大,但是抓不住机遇,他的谋略很多,但是没有决断,他喜欢带兵打仗,但是不知道权变,权变就是随机应变,这个“权”不是权力的权,是权变的权,就是他不能随机应变,他只能规规矩矩地打正规战,而一旦战场的情况发生变化,他就不知道怎么办了。说得难听一点,这等于说他是志大才疏,眼高手低。

[画外音]北伐是刘备死后诸葛亮最重要的事业,然而他的北伐正如历史学家田余庆先生所言,是“积年无成”,易中天先生认为,诸葛亮的北伐其实是不可能成功的,原因有三:曹魏非速亡之国,益州非进取之地,诸葛非将略之才。那么这三个原因,诸葛亮自己清楚呜?如果清楚,那么为什么还要坚持北伐呢?

接下来要问的问题是,这三个原因,他知道吗?这三点诸葛亮他心里清楚呜?诸葛亮是何等聪明的人,怎么会不清楚呢?也许第一次北伐的时候他还有点乐观,但是也很谨慎,不采用魏延的子午谷奇谋,他还是很有自知之明的。好,那么我们只好又问下去了,既然清楚,那为什么还要不断地北伐呢?你明明知道北伐是不能成功的,为什么呢?三个原因。

The third reason is that Zhuge Fei is a talented person. As for Zhuge Liang’s talent, there was originally a conclusive conclusion, and there was no need to dispute it. Chen Shou clearly stated that it was also a sixteen character saying, “Governing the army is long, scheming is short, and managing the people is superior to the general’s strategy.” This is Chen Shou’s very accurate evaluation of Zhuge Liang’s ability. The meaning of this evaluation is to say that Zhuge Liang’s political talent is higher than his military talent, and among his military talents, his ability to govern the military is higher than his ability to use it. It is very accurate. What is there to dispute? The reason why there is controversy is that there is such evidence, according to the “Chronicles of the Three Kingdoms: Biography of Zhuge Liang”, that after Zhuge Liang died of illness and retired from the army, Sima Yi came over and inspected the military camp left by Zhuge Liang. He said this sentence, “The Wonders of the World are also.”. According to this sentence, many people believe that Zhuge Liang is an outstanding military strategist and a wonder in the world; He didn’t know that what Sima Yi affirmed at this time was precisely his military governance. That is to say, Zhuge Liang’s governance of the country is first-class, and there is no problem with governing the military. Being able to govern the military does not equal being able to use it. Sima Yi has another evaluation of his military use. Where is this evaluation? In “The Book of Jin: Biography of Emperor Xuan”. What does the original saying mean, “Be ambitious without seeing the opportunity, plan more with fewer decisions, and be good at fighting without authority?”? “His ambition is great, but he cannot seize the opportunity. He has many strategies, but he does not make a decision. He likes to lead troops to fight, but he does not know contingency. Contingency is the ability to adapt to circumstances. This” power “is not the power of power, but the power of contingency, which means that he cannot adapt to circumstances. He can only play regular warfare in a disciplined manner, and once the situation in the battlefield changes, he does not know what to do.”. To put it a bit harshly, it means that he is ambitious and talented, with high ambitions and low abilities.
[Voice over] The Northern Expedition was Zhuge Liang’s most important career after Liu Bei’s death. However, as the historian Tian Yuqing said, his Northern Expedition was “over the years without success.” Mr. Yi Zhongtian believed that Zhuge Liang’s Northern Expedition was actually impossible to succeed for three reasons: Cao Wei was not a country of rapid demise, Yizhou was not a place of progress, and Zhuge Fei was a talented general. So these three reasons are clear to Zhuge Liang himself? If it is clear, then why insist on the Northern Expedition?
The next question to ask is, do he know these three reasons? Zhuge Liang knows these three points clearly in his heart? How could it be unclear how clever Zhuge Liang was? Perhaps he was a bit optimistic during the first Northern Expedition, but he was also cautious and did not adopt Wei Yan’s Ziwu Valley strategy. He was still very self aware. Okay, so we have to go on asking again. Since it’s clear, why should we continue the northern expedition? You clearly know that the Northern Expedition cannot be successful, why? Three reasons.

第一个原因,安内必先攘外。有证据呜?有,在哪里?《出师表》。我们去读一读诸葛亮的《出师表》,开篇怎么说的:“先帝创业未半而中道崩殂。今天下三分,益州疲弊,此诚危急存亡之秋也”,这才是他要北伐的原因。危急存亡之秋。那么我们要问,为什么诸葛亮觉得蜀汉政权处于危急存亡之秋呢?是曹魏的威胁呜?不是,我们翻翻历史就知道,自从赤壁之战以后,后来灭蜀之前,曹魏可从来没有主动进攻过刘备和蜀汉,他们发动过一次战争呜?那个时候曹魏老打孙权的,相反,刘备征汉中,关羽围襄奕,诸葛出祁山,都是你刘备集团、蜀汉政权屡屡桃衅,怎么能说威胁来自北方呢?再看看东边有威胁呜?夷陵之战以后,吴蜀两国就恢复了盟好当然这里面有诸葛亮的外交的功绩。诸葛亮执政以后,立即执行联合孙吴的这个国策,还做得很好。两家关系和好了,威胁也不来自东边——威胁既不来自北边,也不来自东边,我们要问,让诸葛亮感到不安的那个威胁来自哪里呢?请大家想想还能来自哪里呢?只有一个地方,内部。而内部忧患重重的原因,我在前面己经多次讲过了,就因为他这个政权是由三股政治力量组成的。所以啊,诸葛亮之忧,忧在萧墙之内。在这样的清况下,他只有采取这样的一个政策,就是对内依法治国,对外发动战争。战争对于转移注意力,加强凝聚力,镇压反对派都是很有利的,这叫做安内必先攘外。

The first reason is that Annei must first fight against outsiders. Is there evidence? Yes, where is it? “Graduation Table”. Let’s read Zhuge Liang’s “Graduation Table”. What does the opening passage say: “The late emperor started his business before the middle way collapsed. Today, at the third quarter, Yizhou was exhausted, and this was a time of crisis and survival.” This is the reason why he wanted to carry out the Northern Expedition. The autumn of crisis and peril. So we have to ask, why does Zhuge Liang feel that the Shu Han regime is in the autumn of crisis? Is it the threat of Cao Wei? No, we can tell from history that since the Battle of Chibi and before the later destruction of Shu, Cao Wei never actively attacked Liu Bei and Shu Han. Did they launch a war? At that time, Cao Wei always attacked Sun Quan. On the contrary, Liu Bei’s invasion of Hanzhong, Guan Yu’s encirclement of Xiangyi, and Zhuge’s departure from Qishan were all caused by repeated provocations by your Liu Bei group and the Shu Han regime. How can you say that the threat came from the north? And look at the threat in the east? After the Battle of Yiling, the alliance between Wu and Shu was restored. Of course, there were diplomatic achievements of Zhuge Liang. After Zhuge Liang came into power, he immediately implemented the national policy of uniting Sun Wu and did a good job. The relationship between the two families has been reconciled, and the threat does not come from the east – neither from the north nor from the east. We have to ask, where does the threat that made Zhuge Liang feel uneasy come from? Please think about where else can it come from? There’s only one place, inside. The reason for the internal difficulties I have mentioned many times before is that his regime is composed of three political forces. Therefore, Zhuge Liang’s worries lie within the Xiao Wall. In such a clear situation, he had only one policy to adopt, namely, to rule the country by law at home and wage war abroad. War is very beneficial for diverting attention, strengthening cohesion, and suppressing the opposition. This is called “Annei must first resist foreign aggression.”.

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