有没有道理？有道理，是吧，但是郭嘉主张打。郭嘉主张打有三个理由，第一，他说乌丸是远，但是正因为乌丸远，所以他们绝对想不到我们会去打他，这叫做“恃远无备”，他是没有准备的，如果我突然袭击一下可以打他个措手不及，这叫做“可以打”。第二个理由呢，就是袁绍对乌丸是有恩的，袁绍的儿子跑到乌丸去以后他们肯定会结合起来，他们一旦结合起来，不但是统一中国北方的目标不能实现，就是我们现在已经占有的冀州和青州说不定都不是我们的了，这叫做“应该打”。第三点，刘表这个人来偷袭我们要不要担心？郭嘉说不用担心，为什么呢？郭嘉说刘表“坐谈客耳”，什么意思呢？说刘表这个家伙他是个夸夸其谈的家伙，坐在这儿聊天可以，打仗他不行；是的，刘备是到了他那个地方，刘备也确实是个英雄，但是刘表是不会信任刘备的，因为刘表很清楚刘备的能力在自己之上，他绝不肯也不敢信任刘备；而且刘表现在此刻是根本不知道拿刘备怎么办，信任他吧，委以重任吧，派以重兵吧，怕刘备将来夺自己的地位，不信任他吧，刘备怎么肯给他出力呢。所以郭嘉跟曹操说，明公放心，刘表肯定不会来袭击我们。
Does it make sense? It makes sense, doesn’t it, but Guo Jia advocates fighting. Guo Jia advocated fighting for three reasons. First, he said that Wu Wan was far away, but precisely because Wu Wan was far away, they absolutely didn’t expect us to attack him. This is called “relying on distance without preparation”. He was unprepared. If I suddenly attacked him, I could surprise him. This is called “can fight”. The second reason is that Yuan Shao was kind to Wuwan. After Yuan Shao’s son went to Wuwan, they would definitely join forces. Once they joined forces, not only would the goal of unifying northern China not be achieved, but also the Jizhou and Qingzhou that we now possess may not be ours anymore. This is called “should fight”. Third, should we worry about Liu Biao’s sneak attack? Guo Jia said not to worry, why? What does Guo Jia mean by saying that Liu Biao “sits and talks to guests”? Liu Biao is a boastful fellow. He can sit here and chat, but he can’t fight; Yes, Liu Bei arrived at his place, and Liu Bei was indeed a hero, but Liu Biao would not trust Liu Bei because Liu Biao knew that Liu Bei’s abilities were above his own, and he would never and dare not trust Liu Bei; Moreover, Liu Biao doesn’t even know what to do with Liu Bei at the moment. Trust him, entrust him with important tasks, and send him with heavy troops. He is afraid that Liu Bei will seize his position in the future. Don’t trust him. How can Liu Bei help him. So Guo Jia told Cao Cao, Duke Ming, rest assured that Liu Biao will definitely not attack us.
这个就叫做料事如神啊！果然曹操的军队出发以后，刘备就建议刘表说我们现在趁虚而入，赶快打到许昌把皇上接到我们荆州来，就是襄阳，我们就挟天子以令诸侯了。刘表说，啊，等等吧，看看吧，想想吧，他不动弹刘备是没有军队的，刘表不派兵刘备就没有办法。等到曹操以迅雷不及掩耳之势把乌丸干掉了以后，班师回朝的时候，刘表才来找刘备说哎呀，兄弟，这个事好像是，你看这个我错过一次机会了。唉，刘备拿这个不争气的宗室——都是他们刘家人嘛——没有办法，只好说，啊，也没有什么关系啦，现在我们反正是一个战争年代，机会多得很，这个，只要下回咱不错过了就行了啊。其实刘表哪里还有机会啊？建安十二年曹操平定了乌丸，十三年就来打刘表，曹操是建安十三年七月出兵打刘表的，八月份刘表就死了，他哪里有机会？没有机会。这就是郭嘉的料事如神。
This is called anticipating things like God! Sure enough, after Cao Cao’s army set out, Liu Bei advised Liu Biao that we should seize the opportunity to enter now and quickly reach Xuchang to receive the emperor from Jingzhou, which is Xiangyang. We will seize the emperor and order the princes. Liu Biao said, “Oh, wait a minute, take a look, think about it. If he doesn’t move, Liu Bei has no army. If Liu Biao doesn’t send troops, there’s no way for Liu Bei.”. After Cao Cao quickly wiped out the black pill, and when the master returned to the court, Liu Biao came to Liu Bei and said, “Oh, brother, this seems like I missed a chance.”. Alas, Liu Bei has no choice but to take advantage of this unpopular clan – it’s all their Liu family – and have to say, ‘Ah, it doesn’t matter anymore. Now we’re in a war era anyway, and there are plenty of opportunities. This is as long as we don’t miss it next time.’. Actually, where does Liu Biao have a chance? In the 12th year of Jian’an, Cao Cao calmed down Wu Wan and came to fight Liu Biao in the 13th year. Cao Cao sent troops to fight Liu Biao in July of the 13th year of Jian’an. Liu Biao died in August. Where did he have a chance? No chance. This is Guo Jia’s prediction.
那么我们现在就知道郭嘉是一个什么样的人了，他是什么呢？他是看透了人。他最早看透了袁绍，他知道袁绍成不了大气候，他投奔曹操；他后来看透了吕布，曹操征吕布的时候，眼看就要胜利的时候曹操准备撤兵，郭嘉要他打下去，把吕布灭掉了；他看透了孙策，这个故事以后我们再讲；他看透了刘表，他几乎把曹操所有的敌人都看透了，而且他也看清了自己的主人。郭嘉去世以后，曹操上表朝廷要表彰郭嘉、奖励郭嘉，曹操说了这样的话，他说每次重大行动之前，我曹操往往决定不下来，都是郭嘉当机立断，所以平定天下郭嘉的功劳是最大的。也就是说在每次重大的军事政治行动之前都是郭嘉替曹操出谋划策，而且做出决定，那么郭嘉能够这样做，是因为他把曹操看得很清楚，他知道曹操是一个能够接受、采纳正确意见的人，如果是像袁绍那样刚愎自用、像袁绍那样嫉贤妒能、像袁绍那样犹豫不决、像袁绍那样自以为是，郭嘉的智慧又有什么用呢？你要知道郭嘉出的是险招啊。曹操和袁绍在官渡打仗的时候，孙策准备从南面袭击曹操，也是到许昌去抢皇帝，也是郭嘉断定他不会来。
So now we know what kind of person Guo Jia is, and what is he? He sees through people. He was the first to see through Yuan Shao, knowing that Yuan Shao could not become a major player, and he defected to Cao Cao; Later, he saw through Lv Bu. When Cao Cao attacked Lv Bu, he was about to win when Cao Cao was ready to withdraw his troops. Guo Jia asked him to fight down and destroy Lv Bu; He has read through Sun Ce, and we will tell this story later; He saw through Liu Biao, he saw through almost all of Cao Cao’s enemies, and he also saw through his master. After Guo Jia’s death, Cao Cao went to the court to commend and reward Guo Jia. Cao Cao said this. He said that before every major action, Cao Cao often couldn’t make a decision, and it was Guo Jia who made a quick decision. Therefore, the greatest contribution was made to pacify Guo Jia in the world. That is to say, before every major military and political action, it was Guo Jia who advised and made decisions for Cao Cao. Guo Jia was able to do so because he saw Cao Cao very clearly. He knew that Cao Cao was a person who could accept and adopt correct opinions. If he were as headstrong as Yuan Shao, as jealous of talent as Yuan Shao, as hesitant as Yuan Shao, and as arrogant as Yuan Shao, What is the use of Guo Jia’s wisdom? You should know that Guo Jia’s move is dangerous. When Cao Cao and Yuan Shao were fighting in Guandu, Sun Ce was preparing to attack Cao Cao from the south. He also went to Xuchang to rob the emperor, and Guo Jia decided that he would not come.
＊现在我们知道，郭嘉对于曹操来说确实非常重要。郭嘉来到曹操身边后，曹操一路凯歌，伐吕布、战袁绍、征乌丸，一切都很顺利，成功地平定和统一了中国北方，这里面郭嘉的建议起了很重要的作用。按理说，像郭嘉这样聪明绝顶的人该不会看不透刘备吧，那么，郭嘉对刘备是什么态度呢？
在对待刘备的问题上曹操集团是有两种意见的，一种意见主张杀了刘备，还有一种意见认为不能杀刘备，郭嘉的态度记载在《三国志·郭嘉传》裴松之的注里面，裴松之并列了两种郭嘉的意见。第一种是《魏书》上说的，说曹操去找郭嘉，说现在大家都说刘备这个家伙那不是个什么善类，放在我这儿肯定是要给我惹是非的，要我杀了他，你觉得怎么样？郭嘉说，明公你手提三尺宝剑，起义兵，诛凶暴，你靠的是什么？诚信啊，你靠的是诚以待人才有今天，现在刘备一个英雄走投无路来投奔我们，我们如果杀了他，天下人会怎么想呢？所以郭嘉说，不能随便杀：
“以一人之患，绝四海之望，请明公慎之。”
“Now we know that Guo Jia is indeed very important to Cao Cao.”. After Guo Jia came to Cao Cao’s side, Cao Cao triumphed all the way, attacking Lvbu, fighting Yuan Shao, and conquering Wuwan. Everything went smoothly, successfully calming and unifying northern China. Guo Jia’s suggestions played a very important role in this. Reasonably, a person as intelligent as Guo Jia shouldn’t be blind to Liu Bei, right? So, what is Guo Jia’s attitude towards Liu Bei?
On the issue of treating Liu Bei, the Cao Cao Group has two opinions: one is that Liu Bei should be killed, and the other is that Liu Bei cannot be killed. Guo Jia’s attitude is recorded in the notes of Pei Songzhi in “The Three Kingdoms Annals of Guo Jia”, and Pei Songzhi juxtaposes two opinions of Guo Jia. The first one is from the “Wei Shu”, which says that Cao Cao went to find Guo Jia, and now everyone says that Liu Bei is not a good person. If he were left here, he would definitely cause trouble for me. What do you think of me killing him? Guo Jia said, “Ming Gong, you carry a three foot sword, an insurgent, and you punish ferocity. What do you rely on?”? Honesty, you rely on sincerity to treat talents today. Now, Liu Bei, a hero, has no way out to join us. If we kill him, what will people in the world think? Therefore, Guo Jia said, it is not allowed to casually kill:
“With the danger of one person and the prospect of the whole world, please be cautious with Minggong.”
