贾诩和荀彧的意见是对的，战争是一种风险极大的事情，尤其是在冷兵器时代，谁都没有必胜的把握，在战争中做到万无一失是很困难的，这就需要主帅的意志，在这种情况下，战争的胜负往往决定于主帅的意志是否坚强，而最后的胜利也往往存在于再坚持一下的努力之中。
＊在官渡之战的第二个阶段，曹袁双方相持不下，各有损耗。曹军粮草将尽，士卒疲乏，曹操几乎失去了坚守的信心，他开始顶不住了，心生撤军的想法。那么，此时已经军心动摇的曹操会撤军吗？还会有什么机遇等待着曹操呢？
Jia Xu and Xun Yu were right in their opinion. War is a matter of great risk, especially in the era of cold weapons, where no one has the certainty of victory. It is difficult to be infallible in war, which requires the will of the commander in charge. In this case, the victory or defeat of a war often depends on whether the commander in charge has a strong will, and the final victory often lies in the effort to persevere.
In the second stage of the Battle of Guandu, both Cao and Yuan were at a stalemate, each with losses. Cao Cao’s army was running out of food and grass, and his soldiers were tired. Cao Cao almost lost his confidence in holding on. He began to feel overwhelmed and began to have an idea of withdrawing. So, will Cao Cao, who has already shaken his military will, withdraw? What opportunities await Cao Cao?
官渡之战的第三个阶段转折阶段
机遇说来就来，由于三件事情的发生，战争进入了第三个阶段：“转折阶段”。
The third turning stage of the Guandu War
“Opportunity comes as it comes. Due to three events, the war has entered a third stage: the” turning point stage “.”.
第一件事情，刘备开溜。官渡之战相持阶段的时候，袁绍曾经派刘备南下，到许都附近去骚扰。联合了一个背判曹操的原来黄巾军的一个人，叫刘辟，他们两个人在许都周围骚扰曹操，最后被曹军打得落花流水。刘备回到官渡以后，就跟袁绍说，这样打下去不行啊，我们是不是应该联合一下南方的刘表，我们联合刘表让刘表在南方攻打曹操一下不就行了吗。袁绍一想有道理啊，那你去吧，你和刘表不都是刘家的人嘛，当然是刘备去做这个使节，就批准刘备带着自己的军队去联合刘表。
The first thing is, Liu Bei is away. During the stalemate phase of the Battle of Guandu, Yuan Shao once sent Liu Bei south to harass near Xudu. A person from the original Yellow Scarf Army who betrayed Cao Cao was joined by Liu Bi. The two of them harassed Cao around Xu Du and were eventually beaten to pieces by Cao Cao’s army. After Liu Bei returned to Guandu, he said to Yuan Shao, “It’s not going to work like this. Should we unite Liu Biao in the south and let Liu Biao attack Cao Cao in the south?”. Yuan Shao thought it was reasonable, so go ahead. You and Liu Biao are both members of the Liu family. Of course, Liu Bei went to be the envoy and approved Liu Bei to take his own army to unite Liu Biao.
刘备联合什么刘表啊，他就是开溜嘛！刘备为什么要开溜呢？一种可能是他打了败仗回来以后袁绍给他的脸色不好看，这是一部分历史学家的猜测，但这种可能性不是很大，或者是有也不是很重要。为什么呢？第一个，袁绍父子对刘备还是蛮客气的，根据史书上的记载，非常敬重；第二，就算这一回袁绍脸上不好看，刘备他也是能够忍受的，因为刘备这个人他一向都是在投靠这个、投靠那个，他曾经投靠公孙瓒打袁绍，后来又投靠掏谦打曹操，后来又投靠曹操打吕布，现在又投靠袁绍打曹操，他都换了多少回了，这个脸色难看一点他能忍住。我觉得他恐怕就是海轮上的耗子，最先知道这个船会不会翻，他政治上很敏感，他可能已经预料到袁绍要失败了，所以他溜之乎也。这个事当时没有引起足够的注意，但是我觉得这是一个征兆，这是第一件事情。
What kind of Liu Biao does Liu Bei associate with? He’s just running away! Why did Liu Bei slip away? One possibility is that Yuan Shao didn’t look good on his face after he returned from a defeat, which is the speculation of some historians, but this possibility is not very large, or it is not very important. Why? First, Yuan Shao’s father and son were very polite to Liu Bei, and according to historical records, they respected him very much; Secondly, even if Yuan Shao’s face didn’t look good this time, Liu Bei could endure it, because he had always been relying on this and that person. He had once relied on Gongsun Zan to fight Yuan Shao, then on Qian Qian to fight Cao Cao, then on Cao Cao to fight Lv Bu, and now on Yuan Shao to fight Cao Cao. How many times had he changed his face? It was hard for him to resist. “I think he may be a mouse on a seagoing ship. He was the first to know if the ship would capsize. He was politically sensitive, and he might have expected Yuan Shao to fail, so he slipped away.”. “This matter didn’t attract enough attention at the time, but I think it’s a sign, and this is the first thing.”.
第二件事情，许攸叛逃。许攸叛逃的原因有三个说法，第一个说法是许攸贪财，袁绍不能满足他，所以他投奔曹操；第二个说法是许攸的家人为非作歹，被留守在邺城的审配下了大狱，所以许攸叛逃；第三种说法是许攸向袁绍建议，我们现在应该抄小路到许都去把天子劫持了，袁绍不采纳他的建议，所以叛逃。其实这三种说法是可以统一起来的，那就是许攸发现他在袁绍这里计谋也不能得到使用、他的欲望也不能得到满足，那么他觉得不能待下去，他投奔曹操。而许攸这个人是很重要的，他是袁绍最早的谋士，掌握了大量的军事机密，而且他这个人是非常聪明的、有很多主意的人。他一投奔曹操，曹操拍手大笑，吾事济矣，哈哈，这下我这个事好弄了。许攸一投奔曹操，马上就跟曹操出了一个主意：火烧乌巢。这个乌巢在哪里呢？乌巢在这里，乌巢这个地方是袁绍的囤积军粮的地方，是个粮库。许攸给曹操出主意，派骑兵突袭乌巢，一把火把袁绍的军粮烧它个干净，曹操马上采纳这个计策，连夜赶往乌巢。
The second thing, Xu You defected. There are three reasons for Xu You’s defection. The first is that Xu You was greedy for money and Yuan Shao couldn’t satisfy him, so he defected to Cao Cao; The second statement is that Xu You’s family committed crimes and was detained in Yecheng for trial and sentenced to prison, so Xu You defected; The third statement is that Xu You suggested to Yuan Shao that we should now take the path to Xu Du and kidnap the Son of Heaven. Yuan Shao did not accept his suggestion, so he defected. In fact, the three statements can be unified, that is, Xu You found that his scheming with Yuan Shao could not be used, and his desires could not be satisfied. So he felt that he could not stay, and he defected to Cao Cao. Xu You is a very important person. He was Yuan Shao’s earliest counselor and possessed a large amount of military secrets. He is also a very intelligent person with many ideas. “As soon as he defected to Cao Cao, he clapped his hands and laughed. I can’t help it. Ha ha, now I can handle this matter easily.”. As soon as Xu You defected to Cao Cao, he immediately came up with an idea: to burn the black nest. Where is this black nest? Wu Chao is here. Wu Chao is the place where Yuan Shao hoarded military grain, and it is a grain depot. Xu You gave Cao Cao an idea and sent cavalry to raid Wu Chao, burning Yuan Shao’s military provisions clean with a torch. Cao Cao immediately adopted this strategy and rushed to Wu Chao overnight.
