你想想当年曹操和袁绍两个比，曹操名微而众寡，名声没有袁绍大，人马没有袁绍多，但是最后怎么样呢？曹操把袁绍干掉了，什么原因呢？一个叫做天时，一个叫做人谋，也就是说诸葛亮用这样一个事实告诉刘备：成事在天，谋事在人。看你会不会“谋”，如果会谋，那么现在你这个情况，你就好比当时的曹操，曹操就好比当时的袁绍，曹操能够以弱胜强，你刘备也可以以弱胜强啊，强弱它不是绝对的，也不是永恒的，强弱是矛盾的对立双方，而我们知道辩证法怎么告诉我们的呢？就是矛盾对立的双方无不在一定的条件下相互转化，弱者可以变强者，强者也可能变弱者，条件是什么呢？非惟天时，抑亦人谋也。
Think of the time when Cao Cao and Yuan Shao were compared. Cao Cao had a small reputation but few people, and his reputation was not as great as Yuan Shao, and his people were not as strong as Yuan Shaoduo. But what happened in the end? What was the reason why Cao Cao killed Yuan Shao? One is called Tianshi, and the other is called Renmou. That is to say, Zhuge Liang used this fact to tell Liu Bei: “Heaven makes things happen, and people make plans.”. See if you can “plot”. If you can plot, then in your current situation, you are like Cao Cao at that time, and Cao Cao is like Yuan Shao at that time. Cao Cao can defeat the strong with the weak, and Liu Bei can also defeat the strong with the weak. The strong and the weak are not absolute, nor eternal. The strong and the weak are the opposing sides of the contradiction, and we know how dialectics tells us? “Both sides of the contradiction and opposition transform each other under certain conditions. The weak can become strong, and the strong can also become weak. What are the conditions?”? “When it’s not just the sky, it’s also a matter of restraining people and plotting.”.
这个道理讲清楚了以后那还不解决问题呀，下面诸葛亮再实实在在地替刘备谋划，怎么人谋呢？那我现在就给你谋一谋，我们来看一看当今天下的形势。我相信当时密谈的时候恐怕是有一张地图的，我们现在也来看看这个地图，北方是什么样的情况呢？北方原来冀州、青州、幽州、并州四州是袁绍的，兖州、豫州、徐州三州是曹操的，现在曹操已经把袁绍灭掉了，这一块地方是曹操的。那么曹操这个地方你能不能去打他的主意呢？诸葛亮说不行，为什么呢？他说：
“今操拥百万之众，挟天子而令诸侯，此诚不可与争锋。”
After this principle has been clarified, it will not solve the problem. If Zhuge Liang actually plans for Liu Bei, how can anyone do it? Let me give you some advice now. Let’s take a look at the current situation in the world. I believe there was a map at the time of the secret talks. Let’s also take a look at this map now. What is the situation in the north? In the north, the four states of Jizhou, Qingzhou, Youzhou, and Bingzhou were Yuan Shao’s, while the three states of Yanzhou, Yuzhou, and Xuzhou were Cao Cao’s. Now Cao Cao has destroyed Yuan Shao, and this area is Cao Cao’s. So can you go to the place where Cao Cao is? Zhuge Liang said no, why? He said:
“Today, Cao holds millions of people and coerces the Son of Heaven to order princes. This sincerity cannot be contested.”
这个太厉害了，政治上正确，有一面在当时看来正义的旗帜，保卫皇帝，力量又强，这个我们不能去跟他正面交锋。那么再看下面东边，江东地区，这块地方怎么样呢？诸葛亮说：
“孙权据有江东，已历三世，国险而民附，贤能为之用，此可用为援而不可图也。”
“This is too powerful and politically correct. There was a banner of justice that seemed to protect the emperor at the time, and the power was strong. We cannot confront him head-on.”. So what about this place in the east of the Yangtze River? Zhuge Liang said:
“Sun Quan has occupied Jiangdong for three generations. The country is dangerous and the people are attached, and the wise can use it. This can be used as assistance, but not as a plan.”
