诸葛亮做的这个“隆中对”此刻还是空头支票，不是诸葛亮没有能力，而是诸葛亮和刘备都有忌讳。因为他设计的方案第一步是拿下荆州，荆州是谁的？刘表的，刘表跟刘备是什么关系？宗室，一家子，诸葛亮和刘表是什么关系？刘表是诸葛亮太太的姨夫，诸葛亮再怎么了出谋划策，他也不能撺掇刘备说你把刘表做了，不能讲，这个话是不能讲的，刘备也下不了手，他们都要等机会，所以诸葛亮说得很清楚：
“而其主不能守，此殆天所以资将军。”
The “Long Zhong Pai” made by Zhuge Liang is still a hollow promise at the moment, not because Zhuge Liang is incompetent, but because both Zhuge Liang and Liu Bei have taboos. Because the first step in his design plan is to win Jingzhou. Who owns Jingzhou? Liu Biao’s, what is the relationship between Liu Biao and Liu Bei? What is the relationship between the royal family, the family, Zhuge Liang, and Liu Biao? Liu Biao is the aunt of Mrs. Zhuge Liang. No matter what happens to Zhuge Liang, he cannot persuade Liu Bei to say that you have made Liu Biao and cannot speak. This is not something that can be said, and Liu Bei cannot do it. They all have to wait for opportunities, so Zhuge Liang made it clear:
“And its master cannot defend it, so this perilous sky is the capital of the general.”
也就是说荆州是可以拿下的，但要等到其主不能守，自己送上门来的时候；那送不上门呢？等着呗，你只能等。荆州对于刘备来说，只能巧取，不能豪夺。
＊诸葛亮的“隆中对”给穷途末路的刘备指明了一条光明的大道。在当时，一个身居小山村里的二十七岁的读书人，能正确地评估各派政治势力，能审时度势地制定出一个顺应时代的战略方针，并很早就预见到后来“天下三分”的政治局面，这确实是难能可贵的。可是也有人认为，诸葛亮的“隆中对”并没有更多的高明之处，而且像这样的战略分析，当时也有人提出过，那么谁具有这样的远见卓识呢？
That is to say, Jingzhou can be taken down, but it must wait until its owner cannot guard it and brings it to the door himself; Can’t you deliver it to your door? Wait, you can only wait. For Liu Bei, Jingzhou can only be taken by accident, not by force.
Zhuge Liang’s “Long Zhong Pai” pointed out a bright avenue for Liu Bei, who was at the end of his tether. At that time, a 27-year-old scholar living in a small mountain village was truly commendable for his ability to correctly assess the political forces of various factions, to assess the situation and formulate a strategic policy that conformed to the times, and to foresee the political situation of “three parts of the world” in the future. However, some people believe that Zhuge Liang’s “Long Zhong Pai” has no more wisdom, and that such strategic analysis was also proposed at the time. Who has such foresight and sagacity?
刘表终将失去荆州，这个估计是正确的。而且早在七年前，也就是建安五年，就有人预见到这一点，而且为孙权做了一个非常相似的战略规划，堪称东吴版或者孙权版的《隆中对》，那么这个人是谁呢？这个是鲁肃。
提起鲁肃，受《三国演义》影响较深的观众朋友可能马上就浮现出一个忠厚老实到迂腐程度的这么一个人。大家都知道刘备借荆州，鲁肃讨荆州，鲁肃一去讨荆州，刘备就问诸葛亮怎么办呀，为之奈何？诸葛亮就说你会哭吗？刘备说会呀。鲁肃来了你就哭。鲁肃一去讨荆州，刘备就哭，哭得鲁肃就没有办法，说哎呀，这个事情有话好好说不要哭嘛，你看你哭成这样，我这儿有餐巾纸。好像是这样一个形象，其实不是的，鲁肃是一个很侠义、很豪爽的人。当年周瑜当县长的时候曾经向鲁肃借粮，鲁肃看来是大地主，家里很有钱的，鲁肃当时家里有两囷粮，囷就是圆形的谷仓，每一个谷仓里面可以放三千石谷子，家有两囷，鲁肃就指着说，拿一囷走好了，这叫做“指囷相赠”，是历史上一个有名的故事，所以是个很豪爽的人。
Liu Biao will eventually lose Jingzhou. This estimate is correct. And as early as seven years ago, in the fifth year of Jian’an, someone foresaw this and made a very similar strategic plan for Sun Quan, which can be called the Eastern Wu version or Sun Quan version of “Longzhong Dui”. So who is this person? This is Lu Su.
Speaking of Lu Su, audience friends who were deeply influenced by “The Romance of the Three Kingdoms” may immediately emerge with a person as loyal and honest as a pedantic person. Everyone knows that Liu Bei borrowed Jingzhou, and Lu Su begged Jingzhou. As soon as Lu Su went to beg Jingzhou, Liu Bei asked Zhuge Liang what to do and why? Did Zhuge Liang say you could cry? Liu Bei said yes. When Lu Su comes, you cry. As soon as Lu Su went to Jingzhou to beg for help, Liu Bei cried. When he cried, Lu Su couldn’t help it. Say, hey, if you have something to say about this matter, don’t cry. Look, you’re crying like this. I have a napkin here. It seems like such an image, but in fact, it’s not. Lu Su is a very chivalrous and straightforward person. When Zhou Yu was the county magistrate, he once borrowed grain from Lu Su. Lu Su seemed to be a big landowner and his family was very rich. Lu Su had two grains in his family at that time, and the grain was a circular barn. Each barn could contain three thousand stones of grain, and the family had two grains. Lu Su pointed out and said, “Take one grain and leave.” This is called “giving away with one grain”. It is a famous story in history, so he is a very straightforward person.
